بررسي اثر افزايش قيمت صادراتي محصولات كشاورزي بر متغيرهاي كلان اقتصاد ايران

Studying The Impact of Increase in Export Price of Agricultural Products on Macroeconomic Variables ofIran

Abstract This study aims at investigating the impacts of increased export price of agricultural products on macroeconomic variables of Iranian Economy. To get the objective, Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) and Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) of 1380 was used. The results showed that with increase in export price of agricultural commodities, irrespective of exchange rate, GDP, private investment rate and tax revenues will increase, however, production and consumption of commodities will decrease under flexible exchange rate and will increase in nonflexible exchange rate regime. It was also revealed that investment use of commodities tend to decrease under flexible exchange rate and it is expected to increase as nonflexible exchange rate policy is imposed. Agricultural and nonagricultural prices will also decrease (increase) in flexible (nonflexible) exchange rate conditions. JEL Classification: F31, L16