سياست پولي و حباب مسكن درتهران

Monetary Policy and Housing Price Bubbles in Tehran

Housing market in Iran got out of recession in year 1384 and turn into abnormal growth. But following the housing price growth, which continued until 1386, it deals with the slowdown of the housing market and stable prices in the spring of 1387. Afterward, decreasing trend in housing prices continued in the summer, in spite of increase in global housing prices. In this paper, it is investigated that whether these prices increases rooted in fundamental economic factors or is caused by bubbles. In this study, monetary policy transmission mechanism is assumed in a linear model by rational expectations. Using GMM and a forward-looking New-Keynesian model for a closed economy, the real interest rate effect on housing real return has been discussed in period 1 /1380 to 6/1387. The results indicate that during this period, real interest rates has negative effect and the lag of housing real return and GDP have positive effect on housing real return. JEL Classification: G38, G32, G10, E52, R21, R31. Keywords: The housing bubble, monetary policy, New-Keynesian model, forward-looking behavior