شكست ساختاري در ماندگاري تورم و منحني فيليپس در ايران

Structural Breakdown in the Inflation Persistence and Philips Curve in Iran

Instability of Phillips Curve can be considered as the most important application of Lucas Critique. Based on this critique, changes in the policymakersʹ behaviors cause changes in the macroeconomic parameters through affecting the expectations of the economic factors; therefore, while some economists believe in the existence of short-term correlation between inflation and unemployment due to the inflexibility both in the wages and prices, instability of Phillips Curve is considered as a major impediment to policy making, because of the existence of structural breakdown, resulting from endogenous shocks or changes in the policymaking regimes. The aim of the article is to investigate the structural stability of the inflation persistence and Phillips Curve parameters in the form of Bai and Perron Model during 1961-2008. The result show that in addition to the high fluctuations of the inflation rate in Iran, its persistence is also high. Meantime, Phillips Curve parameters have been changing in different periods and long-term Phillips Curve is not linear during the said period of time. JEL Classification: C22; E24; E31