ارزيابي تاثير افزايش قيمت حامل‌هاي انرژي بر هزينه‌هاي بخش حمل‌و‌نقل و رفاه خانوارهاي شهري در ايران

MEASURING THE IMPACT OF RISE IN ENERGY PRICES ON THE TRANSPORTATION SECTOR AND THE WELFARE OF URBAN HOUSEHOLDS

در اين نوشتار ابتدا با استفاده از دو مدل داده ـ ستانده (IO) و ماتريس حسابداري اجتماعي (SAM)، تاثيراتِ افزايشِ قيمتِ حامل‌هاي انرژي بر هزينه‌ي انواع خدمات حمل‌و‌نقل آبي، هوايي، جاده‌يي و راه آهن، مورد سنجش قرار گرفته است. سپس تاثير افزايش قيمت حامل‌هاي انرژي بر هزينه‌ي خدمات حمل‌و‌نقل درون‌شهري اندازه‌گيري، و اثرات رفاهي اجراي قانون هدف‌مند‌سازي يارانه‌ها بر دهك‌هاي هزينه‌يي خانوارهاي شهري ارزيابي شده است. نتايج تحقيق گوياي آن است كه: 1. ميزان افزايش هزينه‌ي خدمات حمل‌و‌نقل بسيار درخور توجه است. هزينه‌ي استفاده از خودرو شخصي 195‌درصد و هزينه‌ي توليد خدمات حمل‌و‌نقل عمومي در شهرها 6/48 درصد افزايش خواهد يافت. از اين‌رو خانوارها بيش از گذشته از وسايط نقليه‌ي عمومي استفاده مي‌كنند و در درازمدت خودرو‌هاي كم‌مصرف جايگزين خودرو‌هاي پرمصرف خواهد شد. اين در حالي است كه سياست‌هاي دولت، نوسازي ناوگان حمل‌و‌نقل خصوصي را به تعويق مي‌اندازد. 3) جز دو دهك اول، بقيه‌ي دهك‌ها از اجراي طرح متضرر مي‌شوند. در اين وضعيت لازم است دولت از پرداخت يارانه‌ي دهك با درآمد بالا اجتناب كند.

In this article, we study and estimate the direct and indirect impacts of the rise in energy prices on the transportation sector of Iran, using IO and SAM models. We also examine the impacts of new energy prices on urban transportation and the welfare of urban households. The findings of our study are as follows: 1. Transportation costs will increase dramatically: firstly, the SAM model shows higher cost increases compared with the IO model. Secondly, under the IO model, water and air transportation show the highest cost rise, while, under the SAM model, it is air and road transportation that face the highest cost rise. Regarding the importance of transportation for economic activities and the welfare of citizens, it was expected that the government would have a comprehensive and transparent policy for the renovation of all modes of transportation and would provide enough subsidies for this purpose. Unfortunately, this expectation has not been realized so far. 2. The cost of using private cars will increase 195%, and the cost of public transportation will rise 48.6%. Due to this fact, households will use less cars and more public transportation in the short run. They will also try to replace their old cars in the long run. But the government policies do not facilitate the expansion of public urban transportation and the renovation of private cars. The government has reduced its transfer payments to municipalities for the development and renovation of public urban transportation in recent years, and, with its unconditional and high protection of the local car industry for a long period, has increased car prices in the national market, hindering the renovation of the car fleet. 3. This study shows that the government policy to pay cash subsidies to households will only compensate the welfare losses of the two lowest deciles?? levels?? of income. Since this policy does not cover the losses of 40 percent of the population who are among the poor, it does not conform to the aims of the social justice policy of the government.