پديد آورندگان :
صفارزاده ، محمود نويسنده Saffarzadeh, Mahmoud , ميربها ، بابك نويسنده Mirbaha, Babak
چكيده فارسي :
هزينه‌هاي مختلفي همچون آلودگي و تراكم موجب عدم شفافيتِ منافع احداث زيرساخت‌هاي حمل و نقلي و عدم كفايت هزينه‌هاي اوليه‌ي احداث به‌عنوان معيارهاي اصلي مقايسه‌ي اقتصادي گزينه‌ها شده است. در اين پژوهش با انجام يك مطالعه‌ي موردي، تعامل با چنين مشكلاتي بررسي شده است. آلودگي و تراكم به‌عنوان دو هزينه‌ي خارج از جيب معرفي شد و سه رويكرد «حفظ وضع موجود»، «احداث مسير غيرهم‌سطح» و «احداث خط مترو» به‌عنوان گزينه‌هاي احتماليِ تعامل با مشكلات ترافيكيِ وضع موجود معرفي شدند. نتايج حاصله بيان‌گر منافع 17درصدي (نسبت به كل هزينه‌ي احداث خط) ناشي از احداث خط مترو در سال افق طرح، بدون درنظر گرفتن ضرايب تعديل بود. اين مقدار براي گزينه‌ي تونل برابر 9 درصد به دست آمد. ضمناً نتايج نشان دهنده‌ي اين مهم بود كه تصميمات مبتني بر هزينه‌هاي ساخت اوليه زيرساخت‌ها، بدون در نظر گرفتن منافع و هزينه‌هاي خارج از جيب آنها، قابل ارزيابي صحيح نيست.
چكيده لاتين :
Investment and construction of transportation infrastructures are some of the most complex issues that confront governmental authorities. Uncertainty in the benefits of such infrastructures and, also, difficulty in scaling costs to financial profits, create doubts in the decision making process. Congestion, pollution, noise and other issues have significant costs and, therefore, the initial cost of the infrastructure cannot be a proper comparison factor for its economical study. Therefore, it seems necessary to analyze the demand in the horizon year, considering the current situation and using the outcome of planning studies. Evaluating construction and operation costs next to the project profits then leads to applicable decisions. The research aims to study the solution in a particular route case; Sadr expressway in Tehran, which is the sole arterial road to connect the north and north-east of Tehran City to its central region. Studies in the horizon year show that there will be a 104 percent increase of total delay on this expressway in a no action scenario.
Pollution and congestion are studied as direct costs of the project, and three alternatives, i.e. maintaining current conditions, a grade separated route (tunnel, in this case) and a metro line along Sadr expressway, are considered as direct cost mitigation solutions for this expressway. The results suggest that direct costs, due to congestion and pollution, are so significant that the profits of the metro line in the horizon year made 17% of the total cost. However, considering discount rates, profits for the tunnel alternative is only 9% of the whole cost. In addition, it is concluded that decisions made on just capital costs (without counting for profits) may not be evaluated properly. The metro alternative, though having higher capital cost in comparison to the tunnel alternative, looks more economical in the long term, due to its quicker investment return time. Moreover, it was shown that, in some cases, choosing the no action alternative can be even better than constructing an infrastructure. The pollution cost in the tunnel alternative was estimated as being more than the no action alternative, due to the induced traffic when constructing a new infrastructure.
