چكيده فارسي :
قدرتهاي در حال ظهور كشورهايي هستند كه در طي دو دهه گذشته رشد اقتصادي بالايي داشته و به قطب‌هاي اقتصادي جديدي در جهان تبديل شده‌اند. اين ايتلاف كه از آنها به گروه «بريك» ياد مي‌شود، شامل كشورهاي برزيل، روسيه، هند و چين مي‌باشند كه يك چهارم مساحت كره زمين، بيش از 40 درصد جمعيت و 45 درصد ذخاير ارزي جهان متعلق به آنها بوده و تصميم‌گيري‌هاي آنها در اقتصاد جهاني تاثيرگذار مي‌باشد. از آنجايي كه كشورهاي عضو «بريك» شتاب بالايي را در اقتصاد خود تجربه كرده و مي‌كنند (اين كشورها در دو دهه آينده نيز به‌طور ميانگين نرخ رشد بيش از 6 درصد را تجربه خواهند كرد) و حداكثر تا سال 2050 به رقباي جدي كشورهاي قدرتمند جهان تبديل خواهند شد.
اما مساله اين است كه آيا ژيوپليتيك بريك اين ايتلاف را بر طبق معيارهاي قدرت ملي نيز، در حال و آينده، به‌عنوان قدرتهاي در حال ظهور مطرح مي‌كند؟ مقاله حاضر با استفاده از روش توصيفي تحليلي، در صدد پاسخ به اين مساله مي‌باشد. نتايج تحقيق بيانگر آن است كه گروه بريك در چارچوب معيارهاي قدرت ملي در آينده رقباي جدي كشورهاي قدرتمند اقتصادي جهان محسوب خواهند شد و به‌عنوان قدرتهاي در حال ظهور مطرح مي‌باشند. با توجه به اين رويكرد، در پرتو تعاملات جهاني فرصتهايي براي ايران به‌وجود خواهد آمد كه استفاده از اين فرصتها باعث ارتقاي امنيت ملي ايران خواهد شد.
چكيده لاتين :
Introduction
BRIC group consists of emerging economic countries which by experiencing high economic growth during last two decades are becoming new economic powers in the world.
The BRIC Alliance which consists of; Brazil, Russia, India and China, have almost a quarter land areas of the glob with more than 40 percent of world population. Moreover, they have 45 percent of worldwide foreign exchange rate which all lead the world to be affected by their decisions. Because of their now and then nonstop high growth in economy (they will experience the average growth rate of six percent over the next two decades), in 2050, BRIC countries would make serious rivals to the advanced economies.
Methodology
The main research question is: Will BRIC group, in the short and long run, be a serious competitor for the world economically strong countries? Are members of this group considered emerging powers? This paper tries to answer this question by using Scientists comments on the criteria of national power in the geopolitical context of the oretical discussions. Also outlook of BRIC will analysis with a descriptive analytical method and using library resources and documents.
Results and Discussion
The results indicate that in the future, BRIC countries, according to national power criteria framework will be considered as emerging powers and major rivals for the economically advanced countries.
Conclusion
BRIC countries holding approximately 10 % of the world oil reserves. These countries also have 25 % and 40 % of gas and coal reserves of the world respectively. Among BRIC countries, only Russia is considered the exporter .Russia, therefore, plays an important role in oil and gas supply, especially gas among Asian markets and since other BRIC countries are oil importers, demands for fossil fuels by these emerging countries are changing global markets significantly. Considering quick growth of these economies at energy markets, they are also expected to play a role in future as well. Effect of emerging economies on current and future energy markets is , therefore , very important and consequences of the policies taken by these economies on Iranian energy geopolitics as a producer of oil and gas worth mentioning. Because this group provides Iran opportunities which could be used to improve its national security.
