طراحي مدل پيش‏نگري بحران‌هاي اجتماعي به منظور پيشگيري از آنها توسط ناجا

Designing a predictive model for social crises

بحران از هر نوعي مي‌تواند موجبات بي‌نظمي و ناامني را فراهم آورد، بخصوص بحران‌هاي اجتماعي كه مي‌توانند زمينه‌ساز ساير بحران‌ها نيز باشند، لذا همين امر لزوم اتخاذ رويكردي فعالانه، مبتني بر پيش‌نگري در اين خصوص توسط پليس كه متولي اصلي برخورد با اين‌ گونه از بحران‌ها مي‌باشد را بيش از پيش مي‌كند. پژوهش حاضر سعي دارد با تمركز بر بحران‌هاي اجتماعي و به منظور پيش‌نگري آن‌ها به ارايه الگوي پيش‌نگري بحران‌هاي اجتماعي بپردازد. اين پژوهش از حيث زماني، مقطعي؛ از حيث هدف؛ كاربردي و از حيث روش، توصيفي بوده و از نظر روش‌هاي جمع‌آوري داده ها، تركيبي مي‌باشد. با توجه به نتايج به‌دست‎آمده، طرز تلقي بر اين است كه بيشترين امنيت و آرامش اجتماعي زماني برقرار مي‌شود كه حل مسيله مبتني بر گفتمان باشد، همچنين 31 عامل به عنوان عوامل ارتقا دهنده امنيت اجتماعي معرفي شده كه در بين آنها افزايش سطح رفاه جامعه از اهميت بيشتري برخوردار است. در انتها نيز مدل پيش‌نگري بحران‌هاي اجتماعي به منظور پيشگيري از آن‌ها توسط ناجا با تاكيد بر مولفه‌هاي: موضوعات، افراد، زمان و جغرافيا ارايه شده است.

At the present time, police is not aware about social changes in some matters and instead of forecasting social changes for preventing from their occurrence, confronting with cultural and political violently behaviors of different stratum of people and responsible. The lack of situation forecasting arise to making a decision in police which moreover than severe increasing of organizational expenses (human resources, budget and facilities) will deteriorated the conditions. This study has tried to focus on social crisis and presented a model for their forecasting. With regards to this model, the most essential administrative organization of crisis control (police) will be capable of preventing from such crisis occurrences. This study is cross-functional, applied, descriptive, compound, explorative and research. The results showed that among the important and effective factors on forecasting social changes, the majority of addressees had been concentrated on all items (time, matters, people and geography) alternatives. With regards to these results, the attitude is that the highest degree of security and social peace is established in the time that problem-solving had been upon discourse and consisted of total spectrum of social security and peace (software and holistic approach). 31 agents have considered as promotive agents of social security which increasing social welfare, expanding social justice and legal entity are settled in first to third rank for safeguarding interests of groups or special groups. At the end, the social crisis forecasting model has presented for preventing from those via Naja with emphasis to problems, people, time and geography components.