به‌كارگيري بانك داده به‌منظور تحليل كمي ريسك طرح‌هاي سرمايه‌گذاري صنعتي به‌كمك روش تاپسيس

QUANTIFYING RISK ANALYSIS USING DATABASE IN INDUSTRIAL INVESTMENT PROJECTS BY TOPSIS METHOD

يكي از مشكلات رايج در مراحل مختلف اجراي طرح‌ها، تاخيرات مكرر در تكميل آنهاست. مهم‌‌ترين دليل اين امر وجود ريسك و عدم‌ قطعيت‌هاي داخلي و خارجي است. براي رفع اين مشكل برنامه‌يي لازم است كه بتوان ريسك و عدم قطعيت‌ها را به‌طور موثر مديريت، و آثار نامطلوب آنها بر اهداف طرح را كمينه كرد. در اين مقاله به‌منظور تحليل كمي ريسك‌هاي موجود در طرح‌هاي سرمايه‌گذاري صنعتي به‌كارگيري بانك داده‌ با پشتيباني روش تصميم‌گيري تاپسيس پيشنهاد شده است. در اين راستا با استفاده از نرم‌افزار visual basic، برنامه‌يي طراحي شده تا به‌كمك آن بتوان ريسك‌هاي طرح را به‌منظور پاسخ‌گويي بهتر اولويت‌بندي ‌كرد.

A common problem in different stages of an operational project is the frequent delays in the completion of such projects. The main reason is the existence of risks and internal and external uncertainties. Overcoming these shortcomings requires the design of a program to effectively manage risks and uncertainties, in order to minimize their impact on the objectives of the project. Risk management in industrial investment plans is a process to identify potential risks and the probabilities of their actual occurrences and consequences. By selecting control procedures, suitable methods are proposed to make the execution of projects as secure and reliable as possible. In order to quantitatively analyze the existing risks in industrial investment projects, the utilization of a database supported by the Topsis algorithm is suggested in this paper. The database information is classified in the following two categories, i.e. “information of investment plan” and “knowledge database”. The first category is related to the information of the project under investigation. After completion of the project, part of the results derived from the project is transferred to the knowledge database for future projects. In the knowledge database, in addition to the information of these projects, the relevant data regarding other projects, together with related industrial standards and the necessary information, will be saved. Gradually, and with more information gathered in the database, the reliability of the solutions can be established using statistical analysis. The designed model in this paper has eight phases, and a case study on one of the industrial plans related to refrigerator manufacturers is carried out. Data collection and the results of risk assessment for industrial plans in the knowledge database provide the capability of analyzing the risk of new plans. In addition to the creation of such a database in any industrial organization, governmental institutions and service providers can benefit from having access to these databases.