تحولات سوريه؛ بررسي و ارزيابي آرايش جغرافيايي نيروهاي دروني و گرايش بيروني آنان

Syrian Evolution: Study and evaluation of geographical arrangement of internal forces and their external tendency

در حالي كه زمان خيزش و پيروزي در تونس، ليبي و مصر كوتاه مدت بود و دولت هاي متكي به ارتش و طبقه‏ي ديوان سالار در برابر خواست اكثريت شهروندان به سرعت تسليم شدند، روند فرايند تحولات سوريه حاكي از ايستادگي نظام سياسي حاكم است. كدامين زمينه ها و بسترها موجبات به درازا كشيده شدن خيزش در سوريه شده است؟ اين پژوهش با دستيازي به اسناد و اطلاعات دانشگاهي و معتبر و با روش توصيفي- تحليلي، كوشش كرده است نقش و چشم انداز صف بندي هاي پيچيده سوريه را در نواحي مختلف جغرافيايي، ترسيم، بررسي و ارزيابي نمايد. در همين ارتباط و در مرحله استدلال و نتيجه گيري كوشش شده است، صف بندي اين نيروها را با توجه به گرايش بيروني آنها به تصوير كشيده و تاثيرشان را در به درازا كشيدن انقلاب يا خيزش در اين كشور عربي تشريح نمايد. به نظر مي رسد كه دولت سوريه به دليل برخورداري از حمايت علويان، مسيحيان، دروزها، و يزيديه ها، كنترل محورهاي استراتژيك مرزي و حمايت دولت هاي ايران، عراق، لبنان، روسيه و چين در كوتاه-مدت و ميان مدت توانايي كنترل ناآرامي ها را دارا مي باشد.

Syrian Evolution: Study and evaluation of geographical arrangement of internal forces and their external tendency Parasto Movafaqiyan: MA Student of Political Geography of Islamic Azad University, Science and Research Department of Tehran sayedabass ahmadi: Assistant professor Political Geography Faculty of Geography, University of Tehran Yasser azimi: MA Student of Political Geography of Islamic Azad University, Science and Research Department of Tehran Abstract While duration of rise and victory in Tunisia, Libya and Egypt was short and these governments that relied on military and bureaucratic class quickly surrendered to willing of the majority of citizens, this process in Syria shows that the Syrian regime is resisting to changes. What backgrounds underlies this warfare in Syria that makes it so long? In this study by using reliable documents and academic information in a descriptive-analytic way, it has been attempted to trace, review and evaluate the role and perspective of complex alignments in different geographical parts of Syria. In this regard, in logic reasoning and conclusions stages it has been attempted to depict the alignment of these forces according to their external tendency, and describe their impacts on the long pulling of warfare in this Arab country. It seems that because of the support of the Alawite, Christians, Druze, and Yazidi populations, controlling strategic points of the border and support from the governments of Iran, Iraq, Lebanon, Russia and China, the Syrian government has the power to control the protests in short and medium terms. Keywords: Rise Perspective, Backgrounds and Context, Tribes Geopolitics, Christians, Syria