مدل‌سازي ديناميكي سيستم مديريت پسماندهاي جامد شهري در كلان‌شهر تهران

DYNAMIC MODELING OF MUNICIPAL SOLID WASTE MANAGEMENT SYSTEMS FOR METROPOLITAN CITY OF TEHRAN

سيستم‌هاي اجتماعي از تعامل روابط بين انسان‌ها شكل مي گيرند، و توليد آلاينده‌هاي زيست‌محيطي ــ نظير پسماند ــ محصول فعاليت‌هاي مختلف در اين سيستم‌هاست. مديريت صحيح پسماند به‌عنوان يكي از معضلات عصر حاضر به‌شمار مي‌آيد. گرچه مديريت پسماندهاي شهر تهران در پژوهش‌هاي مختلف، و از جنبه هاي زيست‌محيطي و مديريتي مورد بررسي قرار گرفته، امّا در تحقيقِ حاضر مدل‌سازي ديناميكي سيستم مديريت پسماندهاي جامد شهر تهران برمبناي پيشينه‌ي تحقيقات انجام‌شده و با توجه به نگرش سيستمي انجام شده است. براساس نتايج حاصل از اجراي شبيه‌سازي، رفتار متغيرهاي كليدي در يك افق زماني 14‌ساله پيش‌بيني ‌شده و پس از حصول اطمينان از اعتبار مدل، از آن براي سياست گذاري و ارايه‌ي سناريوي بهبودِ مديريت پسماندهاي جامد شهر تهران استفاده شده است.

Social systems are forming from interactive relationships between humans. Environmental pollutants, such as solid waste, are by-products of the different activities of these systems. Sound solid waste management is regarded as a problematic issue in this new era. Every day, a great volume of waste is generated in different forms, especially in metropolitan cities, which endangers the lives of mankind and other living creatures. Facing up to this problem in all countries, such as Iran, with a large volume and various compositions of municipal waste is very complicated and challengeable. The complexity of urban systems, including solid waste management systems and interactions and nonlinear relations between its elements, increases the difficulty of solving this problem. Although the solid waste management problem for Tehran city has been reviewed in different articles and studies from environmental and managerial aspects, modeling its system with a macro viewpoint in dynamic software is a novelty. In this research, the dynamic modeling of Tehran cityʹs municipal solid waste management system has been performed based on literature reviews and system approaches. The dynamic simulation model of the system has been illustrated in Vensim PLE software with 20 level variables and 83 mathematical equations. Based on results from the simulation run, the behavior of key variables has been forecaste for a 14-year time horizon. After verifying the model by validation tests, such as structure verification, boundary adequacy, dimensional consistency and extreme conditions, it has been used to propose system policy building. After obtaining the valid model using policy and sensitivity analysis improvement, a scenario has been compiled. Finally, an improvement scenario for managing solid waste in Tehran city has been proposed; a motion according to a comprehensive waste management hierarchy pyramid based on parameters of an optimistic scenario.