تحليل سياست‌گذاري و برآورد سهم بهينه‌ي خودروهاي گاز سوز در ايران با ارايه ي يك مدل سيستم پويا

An Analysis of Policy Choices and Estimate of the Optimal Share of Natural Gas Vehicles in Iran Using a Dynamic System Model

An Analysis of Policy Choices and Estimate of the Optimal Share of Natural Gas Vehicles in Iran Using a Dynamic System Model Mostafa Dinmohammadi * Assistant Professor of Economics in University of Zanjan, dinm78@gmail.com Zain al Abedin Sadeghi Assistant Professor of Economics in Shahid Bahonar University of Kerman, abed_sadeghi@yahoo.com RajabAli Sadeghian Bafqi Graduated in M.S of industrial Engineering, sadeghian110@gmail.com Homa Ghasemi Graduated in M.S of industrial engineering, hm_ghasemi2009@yahoo.com Received: 2012/05/09 Accepted: 2012/09/09 Abstract Replacement of gasoline vehicle by natural gas vehicles has advantages, such as lower CO2 emissions, and lower oil consumption. This process, however, faces significant challenges such as: lower travel range in comparison with gasoline vehicles, higher prices of gas vehicle prices, as well as high cost of needed investment in infrastructure Such as gas stations. sThis paper provides a dynamic system model to simulate and analyze NGV fleet size based on different policy scenarios from 1390 to 1410 using the Vensim software. In this study, choice of vehicles and expansion of gas stations are two main elements of the model. The choice between gasoline gas vehicles depends on variables such as vehicle price, number of natural gas stations, fuel costs and vehicle depreciation costs.y The paper studies the impact of policies in five areas:gasoline and gas prices, Limitations on supply of natural gas, fuel station taxes, acceptability of CNG taxis and sensitivity of environmental policies.fTh The result show that the use of gas vehicles and number of stations will increase over time if base year policies continue. As a result the share of NGVs in total vehicles will increase to 27% and their numbers will reach approximately 10 million units by the end of the year 1410