اثرات جهاني‌شده بر اشتغال و تقاضاي نيروي كار ماهر و غيرماهر ايران

The Effects of Globalization on Total Labor Demand, Skilled and Unskilled Labor in Iran

در اين مطالعه تلاش م يشود تا اثرات گوناگون جهاني شدن اقتصاد بر روي تقاضاي كل نيروي كار و همچنين تقاضاي نيروي كار ماهر و غيرماهر در ايران ارزيابي شود. بدين منظور در اين مطالعه براي بررسي و پي شبيني اثرات جهان يشدن روي بازار كار در بازه زماني 1353-85 از دو مدل ARDL و شبكه عصبي و نيز دو شاخص آزادسازي و سرمايه گذاري مستقيم خارجي به عنوان شاخ صهاي جهاني شدن استفاده شده است. نتايج نشان م يدهد كه اثر جهان يشدن بر تقاضاي كل نيروي كار مثبت و معن يدار بوده و اثر جهاني شدن بر تقاضاي نيروي كار ماهر بيشتر از تقاضاي نيروي كار غيرماهر است. همچنين شبكه عصبي عملكرد بهتري در پيش بيني متغير هدف نسبت به روش ARDL ، دارد.

The phenomenon of globalization is one of the most debated issues facing countries in today’s world. There are many different opinions concerning this issue. Investigation of the extensive impacts of this process on different dimensions of human life in political, economic, social and cultural spheres has been preoccupying thinkers, politicians, economists and cultural experts around the world. This study has evaluated various effects of economic globalization on total labor demand broken into skilled and unskilled labor in Iran. In this study we use two models of ARDL and GMDH neural network and also two indexes of foreign direct investment and openness as indicators of globalization for investigating and forecasting the effects of globalization on the labor market. The study based on ARDL approach in the 1353-1385 period shows that globalization indexes have a positive impact on labor demand, but they do not have much impact on labor demand in the short run with this effect becoming increasingly significant in the long run. Also these impacts are greater on the demand of skilled labor than unskilled labor. Finally this study indicates that in all cases, GMDH neural network is a more efficient approach in forecasting employment impacts than ARDL.