بررسي رابطه ميان رشد اقتصادي و نوسان توليد

The dynamics of economic growth and output volatility

تا دهه 1980،اقتصاددانان ادوار تجاري و رشد را به عنوان پديده‌هايي مستقل از يكديگر در نظر مي‌گرفتند تا اينكه نلسون و پلاسر1 بحثي در مورد احتمال ارتباط ميان رشد و نوسان ارايه دادند. از اين رو پژوهشگران بيشماري سعي در تبيين رابطه ميان رشد اقتصادي و نوسانات توليد نمودند. مطالعات صورت گرفته نتايج قابل ملاحظه‌اي در مورد وجود رابطه مثبت، منفي و يا حتي نبود ارتباط بين اين دو متغير را ارايه داده‌اند. هدف اين پژوهش، بررسي رابطه ميان رشد و نوسان توليد است. در اين پژوهش، كار رمي و رمي در سال 1995 را با استفاده از مجموعه داده‌هاي جديدتر Penn World Table و دامنه زماني بزرگتر و در قالب داده‌هاي تابلويي بسط مي‌دهيم. نتايج به دست آمده تاييدكننده نظر رمي و رمي مبني بر وجود رابطه منفي ميان نوسان توليد و رشد اقتصادي است.

Until the 1980’s, business cycle theory and growth theory were treated as two separate and unrelated realms. It was believed that business cycles would cast only short run but not long run effects on growth. Charles Nelson and Charles Plosser (1982) were the first to challenge this view. They argue that shocks contribute substantially to variation in output. King, Plosser and Rebelo (1988) argue that economic fluctuations influence the process of stochastic growth. They suggest that temporary shocks can have permanent effects on the level of economic activity. This new view supports the existence of a link between volatility and long-run growth. This study attempts to delineate more clearly the relationship between growth and output volatility. The focus of the study is to re-examine the negative relationship between growth and output volatility as Ramey and Ramey (1995) have concluded. In this study, Ramey and Ramey’s (1995) empirical approach has been expanded by revising sample of countries included in this panel data analysis (developed, developing and other countries with data availability over 1961 to 2007.). Data used for this investigation has been gathered from the recent version of the Penn World Table (Summer-Heston-Aten). In order to estimate output volatility, GARCH technique and Panel Data approach have been used. The result of our model has reaffirmed the findings of earlier studies that the inverse relationship exists between economic growth and output volatility.