پديد آورندگان :
رضايي ، حجت نويسنده دانشجوي دكتراي جغرافيا و برنامه ريزي روستايي، دانشگاه تهران Rezaie, Hojat , محمدي يگانه، بهروز نويسنده استاديار جغرافيا و برنامه‌ريزي روستايي، دانشگاه زنجان Mohammadi Yeganeh, Behroz
كليدواژه :
مهاجرت روستايي , drought , Abarkouh , Rural Economy , اقتصاد روستايي , خشكسالي , rural-urban migration , ابركوه , SPI
چكيده لاتين :
1. INTRODUCTION
Potential environmental factors such as topography, slope, temperature, precipitation, water and land capacity can have a significant impact on the volume of rural-urban migration. Due to various structural reasons, such societies are not able enough to deal with natural hazards such as drought, floods and earthquakes. Eventually, villagers often surrender to nature and the unfavorable factors and find no choice but to abandon their settlements and move to somewhere else. This research was an applied one and conducted in a descriptive-analytical method.
2. METHODOLOGY
This research was an applied one and conducted in a descriptive-analytical method. The data were collected through library research (taking notes, surfing the Internet), and fieldworks (questionnaires, interviews). In this study, the theoretical framework was based on a deductive method and the generalization of the results was conducted in an inductive way. The population of the study consisted of all the rural areas of Abarkouh Township. Based on the national census conducted in 2006, Abarkouh County had a population of 43,595 people, in 35 rural areas comprising 11,660 households. Using case studies, 20% of the rural areas were selected for the research purposes. Furthermore, in order to build up confidence and accuracy of the study, one rural area was added to the sample size. Accordingly, using random sampling method, eight rural areas were selected. In 2006, these rural areas had 3511 inhabitants and 993 households. Based on Cochran formula, the sample size included 215 households. In order to further clarify the extent and severity of the drought period of the study, precipitation data from meteorological station of Abarkouh were also used. The collected data were analyzed by standardized index of SPI.
3. DISCUSSION
To study the effects of drought on crop yield and cultivated areas and horticultural crops, two crops i.e. wheat and pistachio (Tables 2 and 3) were analyzed, as they comprised the most cultivated areas of this township. The results of this study show that over the last years, depending on rainfall trends, horticultural and cereal crops have declined or increased. The most dramatic decrease in crop production happened in 2000 which was statistically the most significant drought. The decrease or increase in agricultural products is more tangible in horticultural crops than cereal ones. It should be noted that by “decrease or increase” in crop production what we mean is crops’ performance. Moreover, Spearman correlation was used to clarify the correlation between drought (independent variable) and performance of crop yield (dependent variable). In order to analyze the variables of drought and migration, the variables were categorized by cluster analysis test on three scales (low, moderate and high) and then tested. The results showed that as drought intensified, the performance of two crops, i.e. wheat and pistachio decreased 0.768 and 0.928 respectively based on Spearman correlation coefficient.
4. CONCLUSION
Results of factor analysis test show that four economic factors explain 60.357% of the variance. The results of loadings factors of variables of the four factors show that drought has rendered the rural economy unstable through reducing crop yield and increasing the cost of products. The study results indicate that the population of the Abarkouh rural areas in 2005 was less than that in 1996. Furthermore, the results show that population in rural areas of Abarkouh is declining with a growth rate of -3.76; the significance of Pearson correlation at the 0.01 level, suggest there is a direct relationship between drought and rise in rural-urban immigration. Accordingly, as drought becomes more sever, the rural-urban immigration increases. Single-sample T-test results indicate that of seven variables (water shortage, drought, low wages, lack of health facilities and basic amenities, marriage-divorce, illness, unemployment) affecting the rural-urban migration in this township, the variable of drought with T-test statistic of 33.527 had the greatest impact on rural-urban migration and marriage and divorce with T-test statistic of -9.051 had no impact on rural- urban migration in Abarkouh.
