بررسي تفاوت عوامل اقتصادي، رقابت سياسي و مداخله بيگانگان در انتخابات رياست جمهوري 1376 و 1388

A Study of Difference of Economic factors, Political Competition and Foreign Intervention in the 1997 and 2009 Presidential Elections

علي‏رغم برگزاري بيش از 30 انتخابات ملي در ايران در دوره پس از انقلاب اسلامي، انتخابات دوره دهم رياست جمهوري در سال 1388 بحث برانگيز گرديد و در نتيجه آن مسايل و مشكلات متعددي پديد آمد، اما اين امر كمتر مورد بحث و بررسي علمي قرار گرفته است. با توجه به شباهت‌هاي گسترده انتخابات سال 1388 با انتخابات رياست جمهوري سال، 1376 پژوهش حاضر كوشيده است اهميت و جايگاه عوامل اقتصادي، رقابت سياسي نامزدها و مداخله بيگانگان را در دو انتخابات ياد شده مورد مقايسه قرار دهد. روش به كار رفته در اين پژوهش، پيمايشي علّي مقايسه‌اي است و با توجه به نوع تحقيق كه پاسخگويان بايد دو دوره انتخابات 76 و 88 را مقايسه كنند جامعه آماري تحقيق، نخبگان اداري شهر شيراز هستند كه حداقل 20 سال سابقه استخدام داشته و يك دوره مديريتي را در سازمان متبوعه‌شان تجربه نموده باشند. اندازه نمونه 149 نفر است كه با استفاده از روش نمونه گيري تصادفي چند مرحله اي، انتخاب شدند. ابزار پژوهش، پرسشنامه پژوهشگر ساخته است كه اعتبار آن با استفاده از اعتبار صوري و پايايي آن از طريق ضريب آلفاي كرونباخ تعيين گرديده است. يافته‌هاي پژوهش نشان داد، ميزان اهميت عوامل اقتصادي، رقابت سياسي و مداخله بيگانگان، در انتخابات سال 1388 به طور معناداري بيشتر از انتخابات سال 1376 است.

Introduction One area of human activity that requires a decision-making and selection is political participation. This is a voluntary activity through which members of a community participate in affaire of their neighborhoods, towns and villages and direct and indirect contribute to shaping their social and political life. Voting is the most effective and most practical means for citizens to give and apply their opinions and ideas in the management of public and social affairs. In all elections held in Iran, the presidential election in 2009 although was held on the style of past elections, but the electoral behavior of the people in this era brought many problems. In this period, some of people took to the streets to protest the election results and the protests were turned violent and causing confrontation of the main political figures, scholars, academics, and many state agencies. Thus the main question of this research is that why in the similar election in 1997 electoral behavior of citizens was non- violent but presidential election in 2009 became violent. (Similarity of the two elections was in this respect that in both 1997and 2009 years, elections was held in a competition manner and the main competition was between the two candidates, and remarkable and dramatic votes allocated to the winning candidate). Method and Material The research method is a causal - comparative survey that is compared two presidential elections in 1997 and 2009. The Population is Shiraz administrative elites who have been employed for a period of at least 20 years and have experienced at least one period of management at various levels of the organization they have employed. Because of the lack of formal data on the population, using exploratory study, the population was estimated around 250 persons that 149 cases were determined as sample size using Krejcie and Morgan’s sampling table and were selected using random multi-stage sampling method in 24 organizations. The measurement tool is a researcher - made questionnaire using 5-point likert scale that consists of 30 items in frame of three dimensions including economic (10 items), political completion (10 items) and foreigner intervention (10 items) .Validity of the scale was measured using content validity and the reliability was measured using Cranach Alpha coefficient, that its value for the economic factors is (.93), political competition (.80) and of foreign intervention is (.92) that shows that the scale has an acceptable internal consistency. Discussion of findings and conclusions In total, 482 respondents including 128 (85.3%) males and 21 (14%) females answered the questionnaires. In this study, age of respondents was between 40 to 60 years old and their average was 45.5 years. Education level of the respondents was as follows: 17 (11.3%) diploma, 24 (16%) above diploma, 80 (53.3%) bachelor, and 25 (16.7%) above the license and 3 (2%) PhD. Based on descriptive results of the study, the mean score of the importance of economic factors, in the 1997 elections is 30.5 and in the 2009 election is equal to 39.6. The mean score of the importance of political competition in the 1997 elections is 32.4 and in the 2009 election is 36.5 and finally mean score of foreign intervention in the 1997 elections is 28.9 and in the 2009 election is 37.8. For investigation of mean difference between two elections 1997 and 2009, independent samples t test was used that the results have been presented in tables 1 to 3. On the basis of the table 1, mean importance of economic factors in the 2009 elections is more than 1997 and this difference is statistically significant. Based on the table 2 data, mean importance of political competition in the 2009 elections is more than 1997 and the difference is statistically significant. Finally based on the the data in table 3, mean of foreign intervention in the 2009 elections is more than 1997 and this difference is statistically significant. Table 1. Mean Difference of Economic Factors in the 1997 and 2009 Electionc Elections N Mean t Sig Economic Factors 1997 149 30.5 -8.7 0.000 2009 149 38.8 Table 2. Mean Difference of Political Competition in the 1997 and 2009 Elections Elections N Mean t Sig Political Competition 1997 149 31.9 -5.6 0.000 2009 149 36 Table 3. Mean Difference of Foreign Intervention in the 1997 and 2009 Elections Elections N Mean t Sig Foreign Intervention 1997 149 28.4 -7.5 0.000 2009 149 36.4 Discussion of Results & Conclusions The findings of this research shows that, there is a significant difference between economic factors, political competition and foreign intervention in the 1997 and 2009 presidential elections in Iran. Based on the findings, importance of political competition has been significantly more in 2009 election in comparison with 1997. This finding is theoretically consistent with research results of Nie & Gold (2010) and also may be explained by rational choice theory. The findings, also, showed that, the importance of economic factors in 2009 election is more than 1997. These results is consistent with research findings of Zibakalam & Colleagues (2010), Kamal (2003), Atarzadeh and Tavassoli (2010) and League (2005) and also theoretically with both rational choice theory and political sociology theory. Finally, On the basis of research findings, foreign intervention has been significantly more in 2009 election in comparison with 1997. This research finding is justified according to the information and communication technology development in the past two decades that foreign intervention in the internal affairs of Iran has been increased.