بررسي و شناسايي متغيرهاي موثر بر بي ثباتي نظام سياسي

Investigation and Recognition of Variables Affecting Political System’s Instability

مهم ترين دغدغه هر حكومت و نظام سياسي دست يابي به ثبات و امنيت پايدار است. ثبات سياسي حكومت عبارت است از اينكه ماهيت نظام سياسي علي‎رغم وجود برخي نوسان‎ها و گذر از بحران‎هاي مختلف، ثابت و پايدار باقي بماند.از طرفي، هر نظام سياسي پويا در تعامل با محيط داخلي و خارجي خود، به ناچار درگير تنش‌ها و بحران هايي مي شود كه اگر نتواند آنها را مديريت نمايد نظام سياسي دچار بي ثباتي شده و امنيت آن به‌شدت در معرض تهديد قرار مي گيرد. بررسي و شناخت متغيرهاي موثر بر بي ثباتي نظام سياسي از جمله روش‌هاي مهمي است كه مي توان تا حد زيادي در كنترل و مديريت آنها نقش آفريني كرد. در اين پژوهش، مهمترين متغيرهاي موثر بر بي-ثباتي نظام سياسي، در قالب سه دسته متغيرهاي سياسي، اقتصادي، اجتماعي و فرهنگي مورد بررسي قرار گرفته است. اطلاعات مورد نياز تحقيق به دو شيوه كتابخانه اي و ميداني(پرسشنامه)گردآوري شده است و 146 متغير با توجه به‌نظر نخبگان و صاحب‌نظران معرفي و مورد آزمون قرار گرفت، سپس متغيرها وزن دهي و رتبه بندي شده اند و مهمترين متغيرها در هر عامل شناسايي شده است. يافته‌هاي پژوهش نشان مي‌دهد در عامل سياسي، وقوع انقلاب، كودتا، جنگ داخلي، كاهش مشروعيت رژيم؛ در عامل اجتماعي– فرهنگي، بروز آشوب‌هاي شهري، نابرابري اجتماعي، فساداداري– مديريتي، كمبود آزادي‌هاي مدني و سرانجام در عامل اقتصادي؛ نرخ بالاي بيكاري، فساد مالي در نظام سياسي-اداري، افزايش فقر و محروميت و تبعيض اقتصادي مهمترين و تاثيرگذارترين متغيرها بوده اند.

Extended Abstract Introduction Undoubtedly, one of the key and most fundamental issues in political atmosphere of the world is the political systems’ instability and stability. Political stability is essential for a political system to achieve its goals. This is why achieving sustainable stability and security is the most important concern of each government and political system. Political stability means that nature of political system remains stable in spite of some fluctuations and transitions. Meanwhile, every dynamic political system having interaction with its internal and external environment is necessarily involved in some tensions and crises and if it cannot settle them, the political system would become instable and will be treated by various threats. Hence, governments are usually seeking to design and perform long- term policies which help their sustainability. Investigation and recognition of variables affecting political system’s instability are among important methods which can contribute to control and handle them. Methodology The research is basic in terms of its goal and is descriptive- analytic in terms of nature and method. Data gathering procedure is based on library and field finding. The field study is a questionnaire type, and statistical sample will include experts. Data analysis will be done using qualitative and quantitative analysis methods, and conclusion will be done using the two methods. Discussion A review on literatures regarding political system instability reveals that evaluation of the concept is difficult. In fact, evaluation of political instability like assessment of national power is also entangled with such fundamental challenges like: power is a multidimensional concept; variables are multiple and divers; variables have different values; there are some qualitative variables etc. Political instability stems from different origins which as a whole application they make the political system instable. Primary factors causing instability are resulted from different so-called political, economic, social and cultural and such other factors which exist in quantitative and qualitative forms. In other words, each of these variables could hold qualitative or quantitative aspects. Since geo-politicians, political scientists, scholars in international relations and politicians are interested in political instability they have tried to provide a list of those factors affecting political instability. Conclusion In the research we made effort to recognize the most important variables affecting political system’s instability using investigation scholars’ theories, and then to evaluate the degree of importance of each of these variables. Accordingly, the most important and effective variables respectively were such factors like: political factors including revolutions, coup dʹetat, civil wars, declining the regimes’ legitimacy, repression of people by governing regimes, ethnic-racial riots, and political despotism and dictatorship; socio-cultural factors including urban chaos, social inequity, administrative corruption, lack of civil liberties and extreme ethnic-religious conflicts; and finally economic factor including high rate of unemployment, financial corruption in administrative – political system (bribery, embezzlement, money laundering, etc.), increase in poverty and deprivation and high rate of inflation were the most significant and effective variables.