بررسي رابطه بين تعميق مالي و رشد اقتصادي كشور

Investigating the relationship between Financial Depth in Capital Market and Economic Growth

هدف مقاله حاضر بررسي رابطه بين تعميق مالي در بازار سرمايه ايران و رشد اقتصادي در سال‌هاي 1388- 1369 مي‌باشد. براي اين منظور در اين مقاله رابطه بين تعميق مالي در بازار سرمايه و رشد اقتصادي كشور در چهار سناريو كه هر سناريو مربوط به يك روش از اندازه‌گيري شاخص تعميق مالي مي‌باشد، مورد بررسي و مطالعه قرار مي‌گيرد. نتايج حاصل از مقاله حاضر نشان مي‌دهد، رابطه بين تعميق مالي در بازار سرمايه با رشد اقتصادي كشور در سناريوي‌هاي اول تا سوم مثبت و معني‌دار به‌دست آمده است و نتايج حاصل از آزمون عليت گرنجر در هر سناريو نشان مي‌دهد كه تعميق مالي موجب رشد اقتصادي شده است و اين رابطه يك‌طرفه مي‌باشد. در زمينه سناريوي چهارم رابطه تعميق مالي و رشد اقتصادي منفي و معني‌دار به‌دست آمده است اما نتايج حاصل از آزمون عليت گرنجر بيانگر مستقل بودن تعميق مالي و رشد اقتصادي مي‌باشد. به‌عبارت ديگر در اين سناريو نه تعميق مالي موجب رشد شده است و نه رشد اقتصادي موجب تعميق مالي.

The purpose of the present research is to investigate the relationship between financial depth in the capital market and economic growth during 1990-2009. In this research, in order to estimate the financial depth, we used four methods, which are two quantitative methods and two structural methods. After estimation of financial depth from each of the above methods, at first, we study the financial depth trend in terms of each four methods, and then we investigate the relationship between financial depth in capital market and economic growth in four scenarios that each scenario is related to a method of estimating financial depth. The results of this research showed that the trend of financial depth in liquidity to gross domestic product ratio method is negative during 1990-2009. On the contrary, in three other methods, the statuses of financial depth in capital market are improved. Also, the results showed that the relationship between financial depth in capital market and economic growth during 1990-2009, in the first, second and third scenarios, are positive and significant and the results of the Granger experience showed that in each of the above three scenario, the financial depth causes economic growth and this relation is one-sided. In the fourth scenario, the relationship between financial depth in capital market is negative and significant but the Granger experience results enplane that financial depth and economic growth are independent. In other word, in this scenario, neither the financial depth nor the economic growth causes financial depth.