جايگاه عوامل كالبدي در كاهش قيمت مسكن

The Position of Physical Factors in Housing Price Reduction

بازار مسكن در سال هاي گذشته از پرنوسان ترين بخش هاي اقتصادي كشور بوده و دوره هاي ركود و رونق بسياري را تجربه كرده است. تدوين يك برنامه جامع جهت كنترل بحران مسكن نيازمند شناسايي و تحليل عميق ابعاد موثر بر افزايش قيمت مسكن و حوزه نفوذ آن ها است. براساس آمار بانك مركزي نمودار رشد قيمت مسكن بر روند رشد تورم منطبق نيست؛ به عبارتي علاوه بر تورم عمومي، عوامل خرد و كلان بسياري در تعيين قيمت مسكن دخالت دارند كه ميزان تاثيرگذاري آنها براساس دوره هاي ركود و رونق در بازار مسكن الگوهاي متفاوتي دارد. در دست هبندي كلي اين عوامل به دو دسته عوامل درون بخشي و برو نبخشي تقسيم بندي مي شوند. ب همنظور توجه همه جانبه به عوامل موثر در قيمت مسكن از روش سيستم ديناميك استفاده كرده و نمودار حلقه علّي و معلولي مربوط به سازوكار تاثير عوامل ياد شده در قيمت مسكن ترسيم مي شود. با توجه به نمودار، قسمت عمده عوامل مصرفي از طريق تاثير بر تعادل بين عرضه و تقاضا در بازار، قيمت مسكن را تغيير م يدهند. به اين ترتيب راهكارهايي كه بتوانند از طريق سرعت بخشيدن به فرآيند ساخت و توليد ساختمان هاي مسكوني و عرضه مسكن و يا جلوگيري از افزايش تقاضا، فاصله ميان عرضه و تقاضا را محدود كنند، از سياس تهاي موفق در كاهش قيمت مسكن محسوب مي شوند. اين سياست ها ميتوانند در دسته هاي مختلف اقتصادي، اجتماعي و كالبدي ارايه شوند كه در اين مقاله راهكارهاي كالبدي از جمله انبوه سازي، استفاده از تكنولوژي هاي نوين، پيش ساخته سازي، افزايش عمر مفيد ساختمانهاي مسكوني، ساماندهي بافت هاي فرسوده، طراحي مدوله و اصلاح الگوي مسكن بررسي مي شود.

In the past few years,the housing market has been one of the most fluctuating economicsectors of the country and has experienced several stagnant and revivification periods. Setting up a holistic program for controllingthe housing crisis needs a complete diagnosis and in-depth analysis of the effective dimensions of housing price in crescent and their degree of influence.One of the most economical indexes used for evaluating the housing situation in different countries, is the index of housing cost portion in a family expenditure basket which can be the base of fundamental policy-makings in the housing department. In countries with successful experiences in solving the housing problem of different stratums of the society, housing cost portion in the family expenditure basket is less than 15%, while in our country, IRAN, this portion is reported to be 53%. In other words, a high percentage of family income is used to pay the rent or to the house mortgage. According to the statistics of The Central Bank, the diagram of housing price growth is not synchronized with the diagram of the price inflation growth and its staircase graph is fluctuating around the inflation axis. A few of the most dominant factors in outerfactors’ group are the economical ones such asliquidity, stock market index,interest rate, inflation and the per capita income. Innerfactors also include different classes like physical factors. To have a holistic overview on the factors affecting the housing prices, dynamic systems method is used and the cause-effect loop diagram related to effectiveness mechanism of the mentioned factors in housing prices is delineated. In Dynamic System, after determining the issue, a dynamic theory is shaped which explains the cause of the issue. Then,according to recognition of the relations between factors, a simulation model is designed and tested. Therefore, different policies which can contribute to solving the issue can be tested in this system and optimum solutions can be selected. In this paper, it was attempted to investigate the fundamental causes of housing prices increase and the trend of factors influencing each other and the housing prices by means of proposing a cause-effect diagram.Analyzing the diagram indicates that usage of modern technologies can accelerate construction and reduce the need forconsumption factors. It also shows that increment in the pace of constructing leads to increase in supplying housing and attracting investments to contribute to the construction processes. Transferring part of the liquidity to the efficient part of construction will be the result too. Increment in the consumption factors leads to increase in construction costs.As the result of the finalized price of the housing; the pace of construction will go down. Irregular increment in the consumption factors due to the weakness of housing scheme, reduction in the housing demand, increment in adrift investments and increase in false demand in the housing sector are the other results of the diagram evaluation. As a part of dynamic management needs and flow of dynamic decisions, the focal point of researches in this field must not stand on individual decisions and the decision making policies must be the center of the attention. Therefore, it is realized that most of these factors change the price of the houses due to their effect on the balance between supply and demand. This means that whenever a factor is able to increase the proportion of the demand to the supply, it can increase the housing prices and vice versa.As the result, the approaches which can limit the supply-demand gap by accelerating the residential buildings construction and houses, supplying or preventing the demand increscent are counted as successful policies in reducing the housing price. These policies can be presented in different economical, social and physical classes. In this paper, the target is the physical approaches which can be investigated more from the architectural viewpoint; approaches which can provide the base of increase in supply and decrease in demand in housing marketplace by means of accelerating the construction processes and extending the buildings lifetime. In this case, approaches such as housing development, the usage of new technologies, prefabrication, increasing the beneficial lifetime of residential buildings, repairing the old textures, modular designing and housing schema amendment are proposed and discussed.