شناسايي و ارزيابي مالي پروژه‌هايBOTبا رويكرد مديريت ريسك با استفاده از روش AHP_DEA

Identify and Assess Financial Risk Management Approach Using BOT Projects AHP_DEA

هدف از تدوين اين پژوهش، شناسايي نقاط قوت و ضعف و ارزيابي مالي پروژه‌هايBOT با رويكرد مديريت ريسك با استفاده از روش AHP_DEA است. از سوالات پرسشنامه اين مقاله، تعداد 14 سوال تاييد و اين پرسشنامه ها بين 22 مهندس كه حداقل 10 سال سابقه ي كار مفيد در اين زمينه داشتند، توزيع شد كه در نهايت 17 عدد از اين پرسشنامه ها جمع آوري گرديد. بر اساس اين تحقيق، در قرادادهاي BOT، بايد تعهدات قراردادي هر يك از طرفين قرارداد و شرايط اجرايي آن و طرف مقابل به طور صريح و روشن بيان شود. همچنين بايد تعهدات سرمايه پذير در پروژه هاي زيربنايي به روش BOT، در مراحل مختلف آن و به شكل هاي متفاوت ديده شود. بر اساس نتايج بدست آمده از اين پژوهش، در قرادادهاي BOT، بايد تعهدات قراردادي هر يك از طرفين قرارداد و شرايط اجرايي آن و طرف به طور صريح و روشن بيان شود.

Nowadays, due to various reasons, including population growth, economic growth and a sharp rise in demand and also the lack of government funding and higher productivity of the private sector, different methods are used to finance the project, that the BOT is the most common method. According to the high volume of investment and longtime range of this projects, in the absence of sufficient knowledge in relation to the financial risks of the project, using this method can has high stakes for the parties to the contract. This paper uses systematically integrated AHP-DEA methodology for risk assessment. The study projects, BOT, general risks such as currency fluctuations, fluctuations in interest rates, inflation, negligence, demand and price, the duration of the construction period and costs of construction period were identified. Also the main indicators related to these risks, including management of political, industrial, manpower, and were used for evaluation. Finally, these risks with using expert judgment were assessed, through questionnaires, and based on priority the risk prevention strategies for improvement were provided