تحولات خاورميانه در دوره اوباما و تغيير استراتژي امريكا در قبال ايران

Middle Eastʹʹs Developments in Obama Era and Transformation of the United States Policy towards Iran

سياست امريكا در قبال ايران در دوره اوباما از خصلت ژيوپليتيك برخوردار بوده است و در واقع، مناسبات دوجانبه بين تهران و واشينگتن تابعي از اين رقابت ژيوپليتيك است. تحولات خاورميانه در سال 2011، فارغ از چيستي ماهيت اين تحولات، تاثير بسيار عميقي بر ژيوپليتيك منطقه و در نتيجه ماهيت و دامنه رقابت راهبردي بين ايران و امريكا داشته است. بدين ترتيب نوع ادراك واشينگتن از تحولات منطقه و بخصوص رفتار و اهداف سياست خارجي ايران در قبال اين تحولات، تاثير مستقيمي بر نوع سياست امريكا در قبال ايران گذاشت؛ بطوريكه امريكا در بستر تحولات انقلابي منطقه، جمهوري اسلامي ايران را به عنوان مهم‌‌ترين رقيب خود مشاهده كرد. اين مقاله به دنبال پاسخ به اين سيوال است كه اين تحولات چه تاثيري بر سياست امريكا در قبال ايران گذاشت. فرضيه اين نوشتار آن است كه ناكامي امريكا در پيش‌بيني و مديريت تحولات در خاورميانه و شمال افريقا باعث تشديد سياست‌هاي تهاجمي واشينگتن برضد تهران، با هدف جلوگيري از بهره برداري جمهوري اسلامي از ظرفيت‌هاي نوظهور منطقه‌اي و ناكارآمد نشان دادن الگوي انقلاب اسلامي براي منطقه شد. اين رويكرد راهبردي در قالب سياست «تشديد تحريم‌ها» عليه ايران تجلي پيدا نمود.

The United States policy towards Iran has been driven by geopolitical considerations during the Obama tenure; consequently, the bilateral relations between Tehran and Washington have been a dependent variable to geopolitical competitions. The Islamic Awakening in the Middle East and North Africa left important imprints on the geopolitics of the region and thereafter on the nature and domain of Iran-U.S. competition. The most noticeable characteristic of this phenomenon was that people turned into the primary and active actors of the regions’ political scene. As a result, geopolitics of the region underwent changes by this previously absent factor. In fact, the Islamic Awakening has shifted the balance of power in the regional countries internal politics in favor of people who have long been discursive addressees of the Islamic Republic of Iran and to the detriment of the U.S. allies in the region i.e. the despotic rulers. In other words, the waves of the Islamic Awakening placed Islamic Republic of Iran in powerful and the United States weak positions. As a result, in the midst of regional revolutionary developments, the United States found Iran one of its most important rivals and took measure to counter the Iranian influence. Intensification of counter-Iranian measures was even seen as one tactic to manage and divert the Islamic Awakening. The present article seeks to deal with the issue of the impact of the Islamic Awakening on the U.S. policy towards Iran. The hypothesis the article follows is that “the United States’ failure to anticipate and manage the Islamic Awakening in the Middle East and North Africa led to intensification of its offensive policy towards Tehran with the aim of countering Iranian use of the new regional opportunities and also introducing the Islamic Revolution model as inefficient to the peoples of the region.” This strategic approach was manifested in the policy of sanctions intensification.