تاثير تحولات روابط ارمنستان و تركيه بر روابط ارمنستان و ايران

The Effect of Normalization of Armenia-Turkey Relations on Armenia-Iran Relations

هزاره سوم مسيحي، بويژه بعد از حادثه 11 سپتامبر در حوزه ها و مناطق مختلف با تغييرهاي بسيار روبه رو بوده است. تركيه، ايران و ارمنستان نيز به‌عنوان سه همسايه هم مرز، تغييرات داخلي، منطقه اي و بين المللي چشمگيري را تجربه كرده اند. اشغال منطقه كوهستاني قره باغ در آغاز دهه 1990 روابط تركيه – ارمنستان را به‌شدت تحت تاثير قرار داد و سبب شد تا موضوعاتي چون نسل كشي ارامنه از سوي عثماني بار ديگر مطرح شود. پس از دو دهه قطع رابطه، به قدرت رسيدن حزب عدالت و توسعه فصل جديدي در سياست خارجي تركيه در رابطه با همسايگانش از جمله ارمنستان گشود. البته مولفه هاي ديگري چون امنيت انرژي، ادامه نزاع-هاي حل نشده و قدرت‌نمايي روسيه در جنگ با گرجستان، سبب توجه بيشتر تركيه به منطقه قفقاز شد. به‌نظر مي‌رسيد توافقنامه 22 آوريل 2009 ارمنستان و تركيه در زوريخ، اوج تجلي اراده دو طرف براي بهبود روابط باشد، اما گذشت زمان اوضاع را به‌گونه اي ديگر رقم زد. از سوي ديگر، قفقاز از گذشته تاكنون، چه به عنوان بخشي از ايران و چه به عنوان حوزه نفوذ آن، همواره مورد توجه ايران بوده است. هرچند روابط تيره تركيه - ارمنستان فرصت تحرك بيشتري را به ايران مي داد، اما با تجديد روابط تركيه – ارمنستان اين پرسش به وجود آمد كه: آيا روابط تركيه – ارمنستان روابط ايران و ارمنستان را تحت تاثير قرار خواهد داد؟ براي پاسخ به آن نخست به بررسي روابط تركيه – ارمنستان پرداخته مي‌شود كه در قالب ديدگاه هاي احمد داوود اوغلو قابل تحليل است، سپس با نگاهي به روابط ايران- ارمنستان، تاثير حضور دوباره تركيه را در معادلات مربوط به روابط ايران- ارمنستان مورد بررسي قرار گيرد. فرضيه مقاله حاضر اين است كه: بهبود روابط تركيه – ارمنستان تاثير منفي بر روابط ايران- ارمنستان نخواهد داشت. براي تبيين اين روابط از پارادايم نوواقع‌گرايي استفاده شده است.

Third millennium especially after September 11 has been associated with large changes in different areas and regions. Turkey, Iran and Armenia, as three neighboring countries, have experienced domestic, regional and international dramatic changes. Mountainous Karabakh region of Azerbaijan has occupied by Armenians. In the first years of the 1990s relations between Turkey and Armenia was heavily under the influence of issues such as the alleged Armenian genocide by the Ottomans, but once again has risen. AKP has opened a new chapter in Turkish foreign policy related to neighbors, including Armenia. Although other factors such as energy security and unresolved conflicts continue to rattle Russiaʹs war with Georgia, Turkey will take more attention to the South Caucasus. Armenia and Turkey agreement on April 22, 2009 in Zurich was the peak of meetings and it was seen that they will improve their relations. Caucasus has taken Iran’s attention more than the past. Although unpromising relations between Turkey and Armenia would give Iran an opportunity, but a question arises: "whether the relations between Turkey and Armenia will affect Armenian-Iranian relations or not? To answer this question, we first examined the relations between Turkey and Armenia in the form of analyzable Ahmet Davut Oglu theories. The hypothesis is that improving the relation between Turkey- Armenia does not affect Armenian-Iranian relations. To illustrate this relationship Neo-realism oriented paradigm is used. Turkish and Armenian officials have reached an agreement to normalize relations without considering Karabakh conflict. It is obvious that normalization of Armenia-Turkey relations is not possible without recognition of the massacre of Armenians and settlement of Karabakh crisis. This approach has put Turkish statesmen in a very difficult situation for improvement relations with Armenia. On the one hand, Turkey should appease Azerbaijan about Ankara’s position related to Karabakh, and from the other hand it should not give points to Armenia on the issue of genocide, which would also face Turkey with international responsibilities. In fact, closing the two countries’ borders during the past 18 years has had no positive effect on the settlement of Karabakh conflict, and has also made it more complicated, increased Armeniaʹs security concerns, and prompted Armenia to get closer relation with Iran and Russia. This situation is not desirable for Ankara and, at a higher level, for the Western states. Therefore, Russia has used the interests of Turkey, Armenia, and the Western countries in a more complicated game – whose main goal was originally to put the Western-minded government of Mikheil Saakashvili under pressure– in order to pave the way to improve relations between Yerevan and Ankara. In the view of the mutual needs of Iran and Armenia in various areas, it would be unrealistic to say that rapprochement between Armenia and Turkey will have a negative impact on Armenia’s relations with Iran. Meanwhile, it is essential that Iranian policymakers have a correct and accurate understanding related to the new dynamics of political, security and economic equations of South Caucasus in order to be able to protect their country’s interests in the face of gradual changes in traditional balance of power in this region. Turkey and Armenia are slowly improving bilateral relations but this does not mean that this issue will necessarily affect Iran-Armenia relations in a negative way. While there has been competition between Turkey and Iran (especially over the Syria crisis), but relations between Iran and Turkey have been cordial. Iran and Turkey have common views on some regional issues. Erdogan’s recent visit from Iran proved that despite essential differences over the Syria crisis, both Iranian and Turkish officials share mutual benefits.