تغييرات فرهنگي و اُفت باروري در ايران (برپايه‏ تحليل ثانوي داده‏هاي پيمايش ارزش‏ها و نگرش‏هاي ايرانيان)

Cultural changes, and reduce fertility in Iran (Based on second analyze of data of Iranian’s survey values and attitudes)

براساس داده‏هاي منتشر شده از سوي سازمآن‌هاي مختلف جمعيت‏شناختي، نرخ باروري در بسياري از كشورهاي جهان و از جمله در ايران در حال كاهش است. اين امر مي‏تواند ناشي از دلايل متعددي باشد. با وجود اين، دگرگوني‏هاي فرهنگي طي چند دهه‏ اخير، در ميان ساير تغييرات، بيشتر از همه خودنمايي مي‏كنند: رشد فردگرايي، تغييرات مذهبي، رشد سكولاريسم و دگرگوني در ارزش‎هاي خانوادگي، در زمره‏ مهم‏ترين تحولاتي قرار دارند كه مي‏توان ارتباط آن‌ها را با باروري بررسي كرد. هدف از اين پژوهش، مطالعه‏ رابطه‏ تحولات فرهنگي در حوزه‏هاي فردي، خانوادگي و مذهبي با تغييرات نرخ‏هاي باروري در مراكز استآن‌هاي ايران است. داده‏هاي مربوط به اين تحولات فرهنگي از يافته‏هاي پيمايش ارزش‏ها و نگرش‏هاي ايرانيان در سال 1380 استخراج شده است. براي به‌دست آوردن نرخ‏هاي باروري عمومي در اين سال نيز، ميزآن‌هاي باروري در سال 1375، براساس روش "فرزندان خود" به داده‏هاي استاندارد براي سال 1380 تبديل شده است. براين‏اساس، روش تحقيق در اين مطالعه، از نوع تحليل ثانوي است. نتايج پژوهش نشان داد كه رابطه‏ كاملاً معناداري ميان متغيرهاي فردگرايي، دينداري، سكولاريسم و ارزش‏هاي خانوادگي در ميان مراكز استاني ايران با نرخ‏هاي باروري در اين استان‌ها وجود دارد؛ به‏اين ‏معنا كه هر چه ميزان دينداري شهرها بيشتر، سطوح سكولاريسم و فردگرايي كمتر، ميزان توجه به ارزش‏هاي خانوادگي بيشتر باشد، نرخ باروري در آن شهرها بيشتر است و برعكس، دينداري كمتر، سكولاريسم و فردگرايي بيشتر و توجه به ارزش‏هاي خانوادگي كمتر، با نرخ‏هاي پايين باروري رابطه‏اي مثبت و همسو دارند.

Introduction Based on data of demography’s different organs, fertility rates in more Countries world and even in Iran, is declining. The decline began first in Europe and then gradually be extended to other countries. Early, this subject was discussed with a structural analysis and theories such as economic theories. One of most important was “the economic theory of cost-benefit”. This theory express that in modern society, couples attend to costs and benefits of having a child. This theory believes that the children were labor force in the past, so they need to be. But from the perspective of this theory, now the couple finds that childbearing have very high costs and Low benefits. So they decide to don’t have any child or have less children. This theory believes that the children were labor force in the past, so they need to be. But in the following decades, these explanations were suspected. Van de kaa and Lesthaeghe were from the first theorist that developed a culture theory culture. Name of this theory is “the second demographic transition”. They express that reduction in the number of children in families of western countries is due to changes that happened in patterns of those families. They believed that these changes are most relevant to the postmodern world. Therefore, they suggested that factors such as cultural changes must explain recent changes in marriage patterns, fertility and divorce. The reason was that it was at a time when most countries have seen a sharp decline in fertility rates, these countries have simultaneously experienced a huge cultural change, too. After these two, other theorists in this field has studied and has completed Van de kaa and Lesthaeghe theory. These scientists added additional components to the theory. Currently, the most important variables as factors influencing fertility decline has been known in various countries of the world, are: the growth of individualism, religious changes, growing secularism and shifting family values. Material & Methods The aim of our research is to study the relationship between cultural developments in the areas of personal, familial and religious changes with fertility rates in the provincial centers of Iran. In other words, in this study we want to investigate 4 those variables as the main causes of reduced fertility suggested by some theorists in Iran. Here the variables of cultural changes that is include variables of change in the values of family, religiosity, secularism and individualism, are considered as independent variables and variable fertility decline, is the dependent variable of the stud. On the other hand, we can imagine that Variables of religion and secularism are effective on the variable’s changes the value of family, and all of the three variables are also associated with fertility. So secularism and religiosity variables, are direct and indirect influence on fertility. Individualism variable, is considered as the variable influencing secularism, religious and family values, too. So we can expect that individualism indirectly is effective on fertility and changes it. In this study, fertility rates in 28 provinces of Iran based on theory’s Van de kaa, Lesthaeghe, Hara and Nils, who express widespread values changes occurred in the areas of family values, individualism, and religion (secularism) have created the changes in fertility rates, related to data from surveys of values and attitudes of Iranians in 2001, that represents rates of the individualism, religious, secularism and the importance of family values in different countries In various provinces. To obtain the general fertility rate in 2001, the fertility rate in 1996, according to method of "self-children" has become the standard data for 2001. Discussion of Results & Conclusions So, the research method in this study is a secondary analysis. The results showed that there are highly significant relationship between Variables of individualism, religiosity, secularism and family values in the provincial centers with fertility rates in these provinces. That is what in cities that have high religiosity, low secularism and individualism and greater attention to family values, those cities have high fertility rates, and vice versa. In the end, to identify the most influential independent variables among cultural variables, using regression testing, has been revealed that individualism over other cultural variables, effects on rates of fertility in centers of the provinces. In sum, the above data indicate to explain more precisely the topic of fertility and it’s decline must cultural variables be considered as one of the main and important factors affecting fertility and changes that. This regard is the assistance of officials and agents wanting change fertility rates.