اقتصاد دفاعي در نيروهاي مسلح و تاثير آن بر رشد اقتصادي ايران

Defensive Economy in the Armed Forces and Its Impact on Iran’s Economic Growth

ايران از يك سو، به‌دليل اينكه در منطقه‌اي استراتژيك قرار گرفته است، نيازهاي مالي براي تامين امنيت آن گسترده بوده و ازسوي ديگر به‌دليل وجود تحريم‌هاي همه‌جانبه اقتصادي اعمال شده از جانب كشورهاي غربي و ضرورت اجراي مقوله اقتصاد دفاعي، بررسي مخارج دفاعي و اثرات آن بر رشد اقتصادي كشور مي‌تواند از اهميت ويژه‌اي برخوردار باشد. مطالعه حاضر اثرات اقتصادي مستقيم و غيرمستقيم مخارج دفاعي بر رشد اقتصادي كشور را طي دوره 1390- 1357 ارزيابي و تجزيه و تحليل مي‌كند. بدين‌منظور، مدلي مبتني بر سيستم معادلات هم‌زمان (SEM) ارايه شده است كه با استفاده از روش حداقل مربعات دو مرحله‌اي (2SLS) براي برآوردهاي تك‌معادله‌اي و روش حداقل مربعات سه‌مرحله‌اي (3SLS) براي برآورد هم‌زمان معادلات، اثرات مخارج دفاعي بر رشد اقتصادي كشور بررسي و آزمون شده است. نتايج بيانگر آن است كه عوامل اصلي مخارج دفاعي ايران، اقتصادي نبوده بلكه استراتژيك هستند (تهديد جنگ). همچنين، اثر مستقيم مخارج دفاعي روي رشد اقتصادي و نيز اثرات غيرمستقيم آن روي پس‌انداز و موازنه تجاري، منفي و معنادار هستند.

On the one hand, due to strategic location of Iran, financial needs for providing security are broad, although the financial resources of the country to meet these needs are limited. On the other hand, due to the economic sanctions imposed by Western countries and the necessity of execution defense economics as an important dimension of resistant economy, examination of defense expenses and its impact on economic growth of the country is of great importance. This Study evaluates and analyzes the economic impact of defense expenses on economic growth of the country by examining the dimensions of defensive economy over the period 1979- 2001. To this end, a model based on a system of simultaneous equations (SEM) is presented which takes into account the direct effect of defensive expenses as well as its indirect effects on economic growth. The effects of defensive expenses on economic growth of Iran have been reviewed and examined by means of two-stage least squares method (2SLS) for single equate estimations and three-stage least squares method (3SLS) to estimate the system of simultaneous equations. The results indicate that the major causes of Iranʹs defense expenses are not economic, but strategic (threat of war). Moreover, the direct effect of defense expenses on economic growth and its indirect effects on the trade balance and savings are negative and meaningful.