تاثير سياست تحريم بر مذاكرات هسته‌اي ايران

The Effect of Sanction Policy on Iran Nuclear Talks

مقابله با تحريم‌هاي اقتصادي آمريكا و اتحاديه اروپا به‌عنوان يكي از ضرورت‌هاي راهبردي در سياست خارجي جمهوري اسلامي ايران محسوب مي‌شود. بررسي تحولات سياست بين‌الملل نشان مي‌دهد كه كشورهاي انقلابي و بازيگراني كه در شرايط كنش متقابل در سياست بين‌الملل قرار دارند، با محدوديت‌هاي اقتصادي و راهبردي روبه‌رو مي‌شوند. سياست تحريم را بايد در زمره سازوكارهاي مقابله محدود، تدريجي و مرحله‌اي مقابله با كشورهاي چالشگر در نظام جهاني دانست. تحريم‌هاي اقتصادي و راهبردي آمريكا عليه ج.ا.ايران از سال 1979 مرحله به مرحله افزايش يافته است. شديدترين تحريم‌ها مربوط به سال 2011 مي‌باشد كه در قالب «تحريم‌هاي فلج‌كننده» نامگذاري شده است. تحريم‌هاي فلج‌كننده معطوف به هدف‌گيري سيستم مالي جمهوري اسلامي ايران بوده و به اين ترتيب محدوديت‌هاي متنوعي را عليه ساختار اقتصادي ايران اعمال كرده است. محدوديت براي فروش نفت به ساير كشورها و همچنين محدوديت براي دريافت منابع مالي ناشي از مبادلات اقتصادي را بايد در زمره نشانه‌هاي مربوط به تحريم اقتصادي ايران دانست. روند مذاكرات نشان مي‌دهد كه ايالات متحده تمايل چنداني براي افزايش درآمدهاي اقتصادي ايران ندارد. افزايش صادرات نفت به‌موازات كاهش قيمت نفت، منجر به درآمدهاي نسبتاً يكساني براي ايران در اقتصاد جهاني گرديده است. مقاله حاضر با روش توصيفي- تحليلي و در چارچوب مدل ساختار – كارگزار در پي پاسخگويي به اين سوال است كه سازوكارهاي اساسي تحريم هاي راهبردي آمريكا و جهان غرب عليه جمهوري اسلامي ايران كدام است و در چه فرايندي شكل مي‌گيرد؟ نتايج نشان مي‌دهد كه الگوي كنش راهبردي ايالات متحده در روند ديپلماسي اجبار و سياست تحريم ايران معطوف به تشويق ساير بازيگران به اعمال تحريم و فشار اقتصادي بيشتر عليه ايران در راستاي انعطاف‌پذيري بيشتري بوده است كه مي‌توان آن را در روند ديپلماسي هسته‌اي ايران بويژه در چارچوب «طرح اقدام مشترك» مشاهده نمود. روند گذار از بحران‌هاي ناشي از تحريم اقتصادي ماهيت سياسي دارد. بنابراين لازم است تا از سازوكارهاي سياسي براي مقابله با سياست تهاجمي و الگوهاي محدودكننده ساختار اقتصادي و راهبردي ايران در نظام جهاني استفاده شود.

Extended Abstract Introduction Dealing with economic sanctions of the United States and the European Union is considered one of the strategic necessities in the foreign policy of Islamic Republic of Iran. Developments in international policies show that revolutionary countries and actors in the interactions of international policies are faced with economic and strategic constraints. Sanction policy should be considered among the limited, gradual and stepwise mechanisms of dealing with radical countries in the global system. Methodology With a descriptive-analytical method and in the structure-agency model framework, this study intended to find what the fundamental mechanisms of strategic sanctions of the United States and the European Union are against Islamic Republic of Iran and in what process they form. Findings The findings of this study are discussed under the following themes: 1. Sanction policy and the strategic process of limiting Iran The existing realities of international policies indicate that the United States prefers to use tactical models, stage method and strategic processes of persuasion. 2. The role of international economic institutions in coercive diplomacy and sanction policy against Iran Economic sanctions against Iran are not possible without the contribution of international economic institutions. Countries that are exposed to sanctions are faced with various limiting mechanisms by the international economic institutions. 3. Geopolitical domination and the strategic process of limiting Iran in sanction policy The strategic process of limiting and economic sanctions against Iran by the United States and other western countries are done based on ideological, security and strategic necessities of the West-oriented global system. 4. The effect of sanction policy on the economic structure and strategic model of Iran Economic sanctions are considered among the coercive diplomacy tools in international policies. Economic sanctions are generally organized and applied against developing countries. Western industrial countries know that the economic dependence of developing countries increase compared to the post-industrial countries in the renewal process. 5. Strategic multilateralism in the process of sanction policy and nuclear diplomacy Competition among the international companies in the capitalism is considered one of the strategic and economic realities. This shows that any development in the international policies might face the reaction of a wide range of actors. Think tanks in the United States try to assess the effect of sanctions on the international political economy and processes of strategic action of actors. Ten executive orders of Barack Obama with regard to economic sanctions against Iran have been observed since 210. Analysis Economic and strategic sanctions of the United States against Islamic Republic of Iran increased gradually since 1979. The most severe sanctions were related to 2011 entitled "crippling sanctions". Crippling sanctions targeted the financial system of Islamic Republic of Iran and thus applied various limitations against the economic structure of Iran. Restrictions for the sale of oil and also receiving financial resources of economic exchange are considered among the signs of economic sanctions against Iran. The process of talks shows that the United States is not much willing to increase economic benefits of Iran. Increase in oil export along with the decrease in oil price leads to almost identical income for Iran in the world economy. Conclusion The results showed that the model of strategic action of the United States of America in the coercive diplomacy and sanction policy focus on the encouragement of other actors to apply more sanctions and economic pressures against Iran for greater flexibility which can be seen in the Iranian nuclear diplomacy especially in the "Joint Action Plan" framework. The process of transition from the crises caused by economic sanctions has a political nature. Thus, it is necessary to use political mechanisms for dealing with the aggressive policy and limiting models of Iran economic and strategic structure in the global system.