عوامل اقتصادي- اجتماعي موثر بر مهاجرت بين استاني در ايران (بر پايه‌‌ي مدل گرانش بسط يافته طيّ دوره‌ 1385-1375)

The Socio-Economical Factors Effective on Interprovincial Migration in Iran (Based on Extended Gravity model in 1996-2006)

مهاجرت داخلي تاثيرات گستردهاي بر پويايي‌هاي جمعيّتي ايران در دهه‌هاي اخير داشته است. از ميان انواع مهاجرت داخلي، در سال 1375 حدود 35 درصد، بين استان‌هاي كشور و بقيه در درون استان‌ها صورت گرفته بود؛ درصورتي كه در سال 1385 سهم مهاجرت‌هاي بين استاني به 41 درصد افزايش يافته است؛ بنا بر اين به نظر مي‌رسد بررسي و تحليل عوامل پديده‌ي مهاجرت بين استاني در كشورمان به منظور شناخت جريان‌هاي مهاجرت و برنامه‌ريزي در جهت بهره‌گيري از اين پديده و جلوگيري از نتايج زيانبار آن از اهميت ويژه‌اي برخوردار باشد. اين مقاله به ارايه‌ي يك مطالعه‌ي تجربي پيرامون عوامل مهاجرت بين استاني در ايران پرداخته و با بهره‌گيري از داده‌هاي سرشماري‌هاي سال‌هاي 1375 و 1385، مدل گرانش بسط يافته مهاجرت را براي ايران آزمون نموده و برخي عوامل مهم مهاجرت را شناسايي كرده است. نتايج نشان داد كه هر دوي عوامل اقتصادي نظير تفاوت‌هاي درآمدي و نرخ‌هاي بيكاري و همچنين عوامل اجتماعي نظير وجود شبكه‌هاي اجتماعي اثر معناداري بر مهاجرت دارند.

Internal migrations has had a great impact on Iranʹs population dynamics in recent Decades. During 1996-2006, about 16.7 % of all population of the country have migrated inside the political territory, such rate has an increase of 2.7% comparing with time period of 1986-1996(14%). This shows an increasing trend of migration during the last decades comparing with the previous ones. Further, According to 1996 population census, just %35 of internal migration was interprovincial whereas in 2006, the share of interprovincial migration has increased to the 41 %. So that the figures seems that the analysis and review of the factors of interprovincial migration in the country for recognizing migration flows and planning for taking advantages of this phenomenon and preventing its harmful results, has a great importance. The deep and significant social- economical differences between the areas will lead to interprovincial migration. Migration is different from one district to another one depending on the social , economical and geographical structures. This paper presents an empirical study on the determinants of interprovincial migration in Iran. By using the data from the 1996 and 2006 population censuses, the extended gravity model of migration was developed. In the current research, by empirical test of migration gravity test for Iran and some main factors of migration , the correctness of this model and the recognition of the main characteristics of interprovincial migrants were studied. The results showed that both the economical factors including income differences and unemployment rates and also social factors such as the existence of social networks has a significant impact on migration.