پديد آورندگان :
جمشيدي، عليرضا نويسنده دانشجوي دكتراي جغرافيا و برنامه‌ريزي روستايي ، دانشگاه اصفهان Jamshidi, Alireza , نوري زمان آبادي، سيدهدايت‌الله نويسنده دانشيار جغرافيا و برنامه‌ريزي روستايي ، دانشگاه اصفهان Nouri Zamanabadi, Seyyed Hedaiatollah , ابراهيمي، محمد نويسنده شركت مهندسي و ساختمان ماشين سازي اراك ,
كليدواژه :
خشكسالي , adaptation , drought , شهرستان سيروان , Ilam province , آگاهي , Sirvan County , تغييرات آب‌وهوايي , سازگاري , استان ايلام , climate change
چكيده لاتين :
1. INTRODUCTION
Climate change directly affects agricultural production, as agricultural sector is inherently sensitive to climate conditions and is one of the most vulnerable sectors to the risks and impacts of global climate change. Because agricultural production remains the main source of income for most rural communities, adaptation of the agricultural sector to the negative effects of climate change will be imperative to protect the livelihoods of the poor and to ensure food security. Adaptation can greatly reduce vulnerability to climate change by making rural communities better able to adjust to climate change and variability, moderating potential damages, and helping them cope with adverse consequences. Adaptation to climate change has been an important research topic, especially in agriculture, ever since climate change has been commonly recognized. The present study is aimed at considering the reasons for the tendency towards adaptation to climate change in villages located in rural districts in Sirvan County. The purpose of this study is to investigate the effective factors on adaptation intention to climate change, so that one can study and analyze these factors in order to make a plan for increasing the adaptation intention to climate change in rural societies.
2. METHODOLOGY
The study is a descriptive-analytical one whose aim is to investigate the effective factors on adaptation intention to climate change in rural districts in Sirvan County. In order to collect data and gather the required information, field data (questionnaire) and library data were used. The population of the study constituted all the residents of Sirvan County. To estimate the sample size, table of Bartlett et al (2001) was used and 162 individuals (households) were selected. The multi-stage probability sampling was used in this study.
The questionnaire was mainly developed from the frameworks of Bryan et al. (2009), Maponya1 and Mpandeli (2012), and Dang et al. (2012). Farmers were asked open-ended questions about whether they had noticed any long-term changes in mean temperature and rainfall, and the direction of the change. Questions about adjustments made in response to perceived changes in temperature and rainfall and the constraints to adaptation were also posed. Before commencing the interviews, a village meeting was held with all community representatives (including chiefs, local councilors, etc.). The nature of the research and the content of the questionnaire were explained to them. Focus group discussion was conducted after face to face interviews with farmers.
3. DISCUSSION
In order to adapt to climate change, farmers should first perceive that changes are taking place. The survey data showed that, in rural districts of Sirvan County, a large share of farmers perceive that temperature has been increasing over time, and that rainfall has been decreasing.
At least 59.87% of the farmers received no support to adapt to the changing weather patterns. Only 6.7% farmers received credit, 9.26% received insurance, and 6.7% received help (borrowing) from acquaintances, relatives, and friends. This is not good at all because lack of credit, insurance, and subsidies limit the ability of farmers to get the necessary resources and technology they might need in order to adapt to climate change. Results showed that, extension services were received by only 74.08% of the farmers. This is good because extension services enhance the efficiency of making adaptation decisions.
This study showed that, despite having perceived changes in temperature and rainfall, a large share of farmers (65.9%) in rural districts of Sirvan County did not take any adaptive measures. In Sirvan County, common measures used by farmers include changing planting dates (6.17%), planting different crops (5.55%), or using different crop varieties (4.32%).
Individuals consistent with climate change are younger (p=0.000, t=-2.63) and more educated (p=0.000, t=8.75) and have more agricultural lands (p=0.000, t=6.83), and higher income (p=0.000, t=4.8). Also, farmers in the study, who have better access to service centers (p=0.000, t=7.78) and credit (p=0.011, t=2.56) have better adaptability to climate change.
4. CONCLUSION
According to IPCC (2011) the scientific community widely agreed that, climate variability and change is already a reality. Over the past century, the temperature of the earth has risen, and associated impacts on physical and biological systems are increasingly being observed. Climate variability and change will bring about gradual shifts such as sea level rise, movement of climatic zones due to increased temperature, and changes in precipitation patterns. According to the IPCC (2011), although there is uncertainty in the predictions, paying attention to the exact magnitude, rate, and regional patterns of climate variability will change the fates of future generations. Thus, the aim of this study was that farmers identify measures to adapt to climate change of Sirvan County to reduce the effects of these changes.
Based on the findings, the adaptability level of Sirvan’s farmers with the climate change happened in the past decade, is not at the appropriate level. About 66% of the farmers reported that they have not done anything to deal with climate change.
