تحليل آماري رخداد مخاطره گردوغبار و ارايه مدل مفهومي شهر هوشمند براي مقابله با آن (مطالعه موردي: شهرهاي ايلام و دهلران)

Statistical Analysis of Dust Disaster Occurrence and Representation of Smart City Conceptual Model for its Collation (Case Study: Ilam and Dehloran Cities)

اهداف: هدف عمده از انجام اين تحقيق، تحليل آماري رخداد گردوغبار و ارايه مدل مفهومي شهر هوشمند به عنوان راهكاري نو براي مقابله و كاهش اثرات مخرب در مناطق شهري مي باشد. روش: اين تحقيق با روش آماري- تحليلي انجام شد؛ به طوري كه ابتدا توزيع زماني رخداد پديده گردوغبار بررسي و تحليل گرديد. سپس، ارتباط پارامترهاي اقليمي با رخداد گردوغبار براساس ضريب همبستگي پيرسون و رگرسيون چندگانه تحليل شد. در ادامه، گلباد سالانه و فصلي منطقه نيز با نرم افزار Wrplot ترسيم گرديد. در پايان، مدل مفهومي شهر هوشمند به عنوان راهكاري براي مقابله با اين پديده تبيين گرديد. يافته ها/ نتايج: مخاطره گردوغبار، متناسب با گرم شدن هوا در بازه زماني پنج ماهه از ماه آوريل تا آگوست رخ مي دهد. اين پديده با تاثيرپذيري از شرايط جغرافيايي، توزيع يكساني ندارد. در شهر ايلام، با ارتفاع و عرض جغرافيايي بيشتر، فراواني وقوع نسبت به شهر دهلران كمتر روي مي دهد. در شهر ايلام، بين پارامترهاي اقليمي و روزهاي گردوغباري ارتباط معني داري وجود ندارد؛ اما در ايستگاه دهلران علاوه بر وجود ارتباط معني دار بين متغيرها، ضريب تعيين (R2) بالا نشان دهنده تاثيرگذاري عمده پارامترهاي اقليمي بر رخداد اين پديده است. نتيجه گيري: كنترل منشا شكل گيري اين پديده به راحتي قابل زدودن نيست و به برنامه هاي كلان ملي و فراملي نياز دارد. ارايه راهكارهايي براي سازگاري و كاهش پيامدها و اثرات اين پديده حايز اهميت است. با فراهم سازي زيرساخت هاي شهر هوشمند يا الكترونيك مي توان شهروندان را قادر ساخت كه زمان روزمره خود را مديريت كنند و بسيار كم درمعرض پديده گردوغبار قرار بگيرند.

1- INTRODUCTION Inspite of technology progressives, natural hazards have caused damage to property and life in many cities around the world. Part of the damage is related to inadequate cognition of correct response to natural hazards. The dust natural hazard occurrence has attracted public attention in the recent years. Lack of attention to natural hazards has not only affected society economically, but it has also affected the life of residents in the society due to heavy damage. 2- THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK Dust is one of the most important naturals hazard, which has attracted theattention of scientists in different aspects. Assessment of dust is important in most areas of Iran, from the viewpoint of medical and sanitary problems, pulmonary respiratory and opttic diseases. The dust phenomenon, as a global hazard, occurs in the dry and semi arid regions of earth. Because of Iran’s location in the arid and semi arid belt of earth, it is repeatedly exposed to different synoptic and local dust systems. The main reason for the dust phenomenon, is the effect of wind force on the areas with texture and particles suspened in the air and spread out in the regional climate condition. Recent occurrence of droughts has increased this phenomenon. 3- METHODOLOGY The paper was done by analytical-statistical method. At first, the time distribution of dust phenomenon occurrence was considered and analyzed. Next, the relation of climatic parameters with dust occurrence was analyze based on Pearson correlation coefficient and multiple regression, and subsequently, the seasonal and annual wind rise of the area was drawn. Finally a smart city conceptual model was identified as a solution for confrontation with this phenomenon. 4- RESULTS & DISCUSSION The dust disaster occurred appropriate to air warming in a time period of about five months from April to August. The most severe dust day occurred in the months of July and May. This phenomenon does not have similar distributions by the impacts of geographical condition. In the Ilam city with higher height and latitude, there were less occurrences than Dehloran city. There aren’t significant relations between climatic parameters and dust days in Ilam city. However in Dehloran station, except significant relations between variables, the high determination coefficient (R2) shows the main effect of climatic parameters in phenomenon occurrence. 5- CONCLUSIONS & SUGGESTIONS The creation source control of dust phenomenon is not easily removable and national and transnational strategic plans are required. The representation of solutions is important for compatibility and decrease of consequences and effects. By preparing the intelligent and electronic city infrastructure, we will be able to have citizens who manage their daily time and exposure to dust phenomenon in the lowest time.