تحليل متغيرهاي اقتصادي موثر بر صنعت نان ايران با رويكرد پوياشناسي سيستم‌ها

Analysis of Economic Variables Affecting the Iranian Bread Industry using a System Dynamics Approach

سهم بالاي نان در سبد خانوار ايراني گوياي اهميت اين ماده‌ي غذايي در اقتصاد و سلامت خانواده است. از اين رو موضوع توليد نان با كيفيت مطلوب و راهكارهاي تحقق اين هدف هميشه مورد توجه دولت‌ها بوده، و هريك برنامه‌ها و طرح‌هايي براي پيشبرد اين هدف در دستور كار خود قرار داده‌اند. علي‌رغم اجراي اين طرح‌ها، علل و عوامل متعددي مانع توسعه‌ي مطلوب واحدهاي مكانيزه‌ي توليد نان بوده است. عدم وجود نگرش جامع در طراحي نظام‌هاي حمايتي مهم‌ترين عامل توسعه‌ نيافتن اين صنعت و تضييع منابع ملي بوده است. براين اساس، در اين تحقيق متغيرهاي اقتصادي موثر بر سيستم صنعت نان در ايران با استفاده از پوياشناسي سيستم‌ها بررسي شده است. با توجه به محدوديت‌هايي نظير لزوم بررسي همزمان تخصص‌هاي متفاوت در اين زمينه و متغيرهاي گسترده‌ي موجود، اثرگذاري آن ها مورد سنجش قرار گرفته و توسعه‌ي واحدهاي مكانيزه‌ي توليد نان به‌عنوان راهبرد اصلي در ارتقاي شاخص‌‌هاي عملكردي صنعت نان بررسي شده است.

In an Iranian household, the bread basket indicates its importance in family health and economics. Therefore, the subject of producing bread with desirable quality has always been considered by different governmental programs and plans. In this regard, the low quality of bread, the high rate of loss and low productivity in traditional bakeries are main challenges in this industry. As a consequence of executing supportive government plans, in recent years, many construction permits were issued, but few of them succeeded. Many factors could be obstacles in the desirable development of mechanized bakeries. Furthermore, traditional bread is considered the most important and the cheapest food in the Iranian diet. While the quality of this food has a great impact on public health, its waste can also be viewed as a major economic challenge. Different solutions have been provided to improve the quality of bread and thus reduce its waste. Among them, we can point out the development of mechanized bakeries. Due to the great importance of the bread industry, it is essential to achieve a unique perspective to provide solutions, and design policies in line with the intended objectives. Also, a shared view in all organizations and relevant bodies should be provided. This research studies the barriers of the start-up and growth of mechanized bakeries. In this study, seven main obstacles are identified using expert studies, interviews and expert opinion in the public and private sector, including managers and practitioners in associations, federations and the managers of small, medium and large bakery businesses. This paper analyzes effective financial factors in the system of the Iranian bread industry using system dynamics. Considering the limitations, such as the large number of variables from different areas, these effects have been analyzed. Consequently, the development of mechanized bakeries, as a main solution for increasing the performance indicators of the bread industry, has been considered.