ارزيابي ريسك محيط زيستي سد پاوه رود زنجان در مرحله ساختماني با استفاده از تلفيق روش هاي TOPSIS و RAM-D

Assessment of Environmental Risk of Paveroud Dam of Zanjan during Construction Phase using Combination of TOPSIS and RAM-D Techniques

هدف از انجام اين تحقيق، شناخت، بررسي و ارزيابي ريسك سد پاوه‌رود در مرحله ساختماني است. پس از جمع‌آوري و بررسي اطلاعات مربوط به شرايط محيط‌زيست منطقه بررسي شده و شرايط فني ساخت سد، ليستي از عوامل احتمالي ريسك به‌صورت پرسش‌نامه تهيه و براي بررسي صحت آن‌ها، در اختيار گروهي متخصص شامل نخبگان و اساتيد در رشته‌هاي مرتبط با محيط زيست و عمران سد قرارگرفت. تعداد پرسش‌نامه‌ها بر اساس فرمول كوكران تعيين شد. بدين‌صورت كه ابتدا، به‌منظور تحليل پرسش‌نامه‌هاي به‌دست آمده و ريسك‌هاي موجود در منطقه در قالب طيف ليكرت، از گروه كارشناسي در تحقيق خواسته شد تا امتيازدهي كنند. پس از تجزيه و تحليل امتيازات داده شده با استفاده از يافته‌هاي روش 1PHA، از روش 2TOPSIS به‌منظور اولويت‌بندي ريسك‌هاي شناسايي شده سد پاوه‌رود استفاده شد. نتايج به‌دست آمده از اين روش نشان داد كه از بين 36 عامل ريسك، فرسايش در اولويت اول قرار گرفت.

Objective of the present research is to identify, analyze, and assess risk of Paveroud Dam during construction phase. Following collection and analysis of the information related to environmental conditions of the area of study and technical specifications of dam construction, a list of probable risk factors was prepared in the form of a questionnaire, and for verification, the questionnaires were provided to a group of specialists consisting of elites and professors specialized at the disciplines relevant to environment and civil engineering. Number of questionnaires was determined based on Cochran’s formula. In the first step, the expert group in the research was asked to score in Likert scale format so as to analyze the acquired responses and the risks present in the region. Having analyzed the scores using the findings of PHA method, TOPSIS technique was applied to prioritize the identified risks of Paveroud Dam. The results indicated that erosion had the highest priority among 36 risk factors. After prioritization among the risk factors, risk was also assessed using RAM-D technique in which “impact on Sorkhabad Protected Zone with 9 scores, “erosion” with 6 scores, and “work at high elevation” with 3 scores were recognized as three major risks of Paveroud Dam. In order to mitigate the effects of dam risks during construction phase, environmental management planning is crucial, and for this purpose, risk mitigation choices were recommended at the end aimed at coping with the identified risks