اينترنت و انقلاب خاموش جوانان در خاورميانه

Internet and Youth’s Silent Revolution in the Middle East Khalil

«انقلاب خاموش» اصطلاحي است كه در ارتباط با تغيير و تحولات تدريجي در عرصه فكري ـ نگرشي و باورهاي سياسي به‌كار رفته است، اين انقلاب مي‌تواند منجر به كنش‌هاي سياسي اعتراضي و انقلاب سياسي و اجتماعي گردد. هدف از انجام اين پژوهش، تحليل تاثير اينترنت بر شكل‌گيري انقلاب خاموش ارزشي ـ نگرشي و وقوع بهار عربي در چارچوب نظريه رونالد اينگلهارت است. پرسش پژوهش آن است كه: مهم‌ترين عامل موثر بر بروز انقلاب خاموش در جوانان شهري و تحصيلكردگان خاورميانه عربي در دو دهه اخير چه بوده است؟ پيامد چنين انقلابي، در ساحت رفتاري يا كنشي چه بوده است؟ فرضيه تحقيق: بدون آن‌كه تاثير تحول در نظام آموزشي ناديده گرفته شود، بايد گفت كه از نيمه دوم دهه 2000 به اين‌سو، افزايش دسترسي و استفاده از اينترنت منجر به شكل‌گيري انقلاب خاموش در ساحت ارزشي ـ نگرشي و فكري و در ساحت رفتاري به تشديد كنش‌هاي اعتراضي در فضاي سايبري و غير سايبري و بهار عربي شد. روش تحقيق از نوع تبييني ـ علي و تحليلي است. با استفاده از داده‌هاي پيمايش‌هاي ارزشي و نگرشي انجام شده توسط مراكز پژوهشي منطقه‌اي و مطالعات كمي انجام شده، در اين پژوهش اين نتيجه حاصل شد كه اينترنت در بيش از يك دهه اخير تا حد زيادي بر سپهر نگرشي و ارزشي و نيز سپهر رفتاري جوانان شهري و تحصيلكردگان تاثيرگذار بوده است؛ اما اين نتيجه در مورد توده‌هاي بي‌سواد و كم‌سواد تاييد نمي‌گردد لذا در تحليل تاثير اينترنت، متغير نظام آموزشي متحول به‌عنوان متغير زمينه‌اي ـ كه مفروض گرفته شده ـ را نمي‌توان ناديده گرفت.

Purpose: The aim of this research is the analysis of internet’s impact on shaping silent revolution in Middle East and then, occurrence of Arab spring in the context of this revolution in framework of Ingelhart theory. By attention to this aim, the author has tried to give quantitative and analytical answer to this question: what is the most important factor on shaping of silent revolution in urban and educated youth in the Middle East from 2000s onward? What is the behavioral repercussion of this revolution? Without denying the impact of development in educational system as control variable, the hypothesis in this research is that the increasing of availability and using internet from the second half of 2000s decade onward has been led to shaping of silent revolution in attitude dimension and then, in shaping and intensification of protest actions in cyber and noncyber sphere and Arab spring at behavioral one. By attention to these sociopolitical circumstances, The Middle East region has been the focus attention of mass media, analysts and public opinion in the world. Design/Methodology/Approach: This paper is formed and based on causalanalytical explanative method and secondary analysis of data by using of attitudevalue survey data from regional and world research centers. Findings: The result of this research is that in more than one last decade, internet has been much efficient on the changing of urban and educated youth at valueattitude and behavioral dimensions in Middle East. This change can be named as silent revolution. But this result cannot be verified for illiterate or little literate masses, so we cannot deny the impact of educational system as a field or control variable that has been hypothesized in this research. Findings of this research show that without these value/attitude developments and changes, we couldn’t see the last political protests in this region. Of course, it is so soon that these protests are named as a revolution. But by extension of these changes in value and behavioral dimensions and other requirements in future, probably we will see the development toward to real revolution. At present time in the context of attitude and awareness changing, the urban and educated youth acts as the important actor in sociopolitical sphere of Middle East. Originality/Value: The silent revolution is an idiom that has been used for changes in sociopolitical values and beliefs. This revolution can be an introduction or incitement for political protest and sociopolitical developments. The present research is new due to reasons such as: absence of direct research with this title, application of the theory of silent revolution, using world and regional value survey centers and then, making relation between value and awareness changes and political protests in Middle East and North Africa in the last decade. In this research, it has been tried to test a fulfilled theory in west Europe but now in a different region.