پديد آورندگان :
جاوري، مجيد نويسنده , , شيراني، كيانا نويسنده استاديار بيماريهاي عفوني، مركز تحقيقات نقص ايمني، دانشگاه علوم پزشكي اصفهان، ايران , , كريمي، زهرا نويسنده - ,
كليدواژه :
الگوهاي روند , الگوهاي فصلي , تغييرات زماني , دما و بيماري سالك
چكيده لاتين :
Abstract:
The purpose of this paper is to examine the variability relationship between temporal patterns (trends and seasonal) temperatures and cutaneous Leishmaniasis disease in Isfahan province. Data on monthly, seasonal and annual temperature for the period of 35 years (2014-1979) in 13 synoptic stations and monthly data, quarterly and annual disease in a 10-year period (2005-2014) were used in 13 centers in the province. The method is based on multivariate statistical analysis and time series models of seasonal and trend. According to the methods and models used in series, changes in temperature trend were significantly different directions and in such a way stations temperature series of follow the trend patterns (Kashan and Shahreza decreasing and the rest of the increasing), while the cutaneous leishmaniasis, except for changes in focus (Khoor Biybanak, Kashan and Shahreza of trend increasing and other centers with non-trend) do not have them trend pattern. According to the point models used in series, changes in temperature and disease trend were significantly similar directions. As changes in temperature and disease in the province are followed in seasonal patterns series. The results show that temperature and disease are followed to a seasonal pattern, with the highest (lowest) cases in autumn (spring) season with a seasonal time delay to the maximum (minimum) temperature in summer winter happens.
Keywords: Trend, Temperature, Cutaneous Leishmaniasis, Disease, Isfahan Province
Introduction:
Change of climatic elements such as temperature on a temporal scale, follow different patterns studying under various models such as trend and seasonal. Relating to these changes, many environment elements are affected. One of the most important effects of climate is on health. Cutaneous Leishmaniasis (CL) is a one of the types of disease caused by protozoan parasites of the genus Leis mania and localized CL in various countries Alvar et al. (2012). The agent of this disease is transmitted into the skin of mammalian host by a kind of female sand flies. CL is a major neglected tropical disease(Alvar et al., 2012) with a complex ecology, whose transmission, in the New World , requires the co-existence of vectors, reservoirs and humans. The importance of temperature variations and anomalies for temporal variations in the diseases has been well recognized .Temperature variations can enhance diseases through environmental process.
Materials and Methods:
Study region (?N, ?50_E) is approximately 33 km2 and situated in the center of Iran, ranges from 25o 3’ to 39o 47’ N and from 44o 5’ to 63o 18’ E. The case study dealt with the identification of temperatures effect on CL in order to better forecast the CL variations in Isfahan Province. With regard to temperature changes in Isfahan Province, we chose 13 stations. The temperature were obtained from meteorological organization and included the monthly, seasonal and annual information of 13 stations in Isfahan Province for the period of 1979-2014. All the observed temperature data have been subject to strict quality control obtained from http://www.irimo.ir/eng/wd/720-Products-Services.html.The study focused on monthly and seasonal variations. The CL data were obtained from Heath Center of Isfahan and Kashan Heath Center and included the monthly, seasonal and annual information of 13 city in Isfahan Province.
Study of temperature trend on CL changes are based on exploratory and confirmatory analyses with the incorporation of trended and non-trend patterns of predictor variables on response variables. Trend model is a multivariate statistical method that uses factor analysis, to evaluate the relationship between temperature and CL(Paul & Anderson, 2013). Application of this technique in climatology leads to this question of how the trend pattern among temperature variables and the CL factors are studied. Trend models analysis can be used to answer this question. We studied the possible trend patterns between temperature and CL. Upward and downward trends of temperature on CL is highly related to the relationship link between temperatures and CL. Nevertheless, temperature could influence CL, which in turn relationships amount, with only no direct link between temperature and CL.
Results and discussion:
A pointed out, temperature and CL trend studies the effect of temperature variables or the variables which are not directly observable. These temperature variables are measured by several trend models. Concerning the relationship of temperature trend on CL, three indicators of monthly, seasonal and annual temperature indexes and CL data were studied With respect to research model, testing the model are done along with testing the measurement model, analyzing and forecasting models .Hence, the distribution of temperature and CL data showed a suitable time series patterns. Also, the results show that the series of temperature have an acceptable trend and the mentioned constructs of research have a suitable diagnostic trend. Also, the results show that the series of CL disease have an acceptable seasonality in the stations and the mentioned constructs of research have a suitable diagnostic seasonal pattern. In order to evaluate the relationship of temperature elements trend and CL disease, linear model to being noncompliance into trend model, the data from analysis model were extracted, and the forecasted temperatures relationship to CL disease were obtained.
Conclusions:
A primary purpose of our study was zoning of temperature and CL data trend. Our other aim was to examine the relationship of the temperature and CL disease trend causal indicators. Results indicated that there are relationship of trend between temperature and CL disease in Isfahan province .The findings of this study also indicated that among the temperature which were influential on CL disease, the monthly temperature factor had the highest effect on the rate of CL disease.
