بررسي و تحليل آثار هدفمندسازي يارانه‎ها بر تغيير ماليات غيرمستقيم استان خراسان رضوي

Analysis of the Effect of Combined Subsidies on the Indirect Tax Change in Khorasan Razavi

طرح هدفمندسازي يارانه‌ها در ايران يكي از مهم‌ترين بخش‌ها و نمايان‌ترين بخش طرح تحول اقتصادي است كه به تغيير فرآيند اعطاي يارانه‌ها مي‌انجامد. گسترش تعهدات دولت در عرصه‎هاي اقتصادي و اجتماعي و تلاش در جهت تحقق رشد اقتصادي و توزيع عادلانه درآمد، پرداخت و دريافت ماليات را به امري مهم و تأثيرگذار تبديل كرده است. ماليات يكي از اهرم‌هاي بسيار مهم اقتصادي در دست دولت است كه در جلوگيري از تورم و ركود و همچنين در تعديل و توزيع عادلانه ثروت در جامعه نقش عمده‌اي دارد. در اين مقاله با استفاده از نظرات كارشناسان و متخصصان مالياتي و نيز تكيه بر آمار موجود و تدوين پرسشنامه، به تشخيص مسيرهاي تأثيرگذاري طرح هدفمندي يارانه‎ها بر تغيير تركيب مالياتي استان خراسان رضوي پرداخته شده است و اثرات اين تغيير در سال 1391، مورد بررسي قرار گرفته است. نتايج به دست آمده نشان مي‌دهد در صورت اعمال قانون هدفمندسازي يارانه‌ها، تغييراتي قابل‌ملاحظه‌اي در سهم ماليات‌ها صورت نگرفته است. در مورد ماليات غيرمستقيم (ماليات بر كالا و خدمات)، شواهد نشان مي‌دهد كه تغييرات مقادير وصولي ماليات بر كالا و خدمات بيش از آنكه تابع سياست هدفمندسازي باشد، تابع متغيرهاي برون‌زايي است كه بر ماليات ستاني اثرگذارند.

Targeted Subsidies is an important and visible part of the economic development plan which leads to a change in the subsidy. Factors such as the expansion and diversification of economic activities, the increasing role of government in the development of public services, social security, the development of government commitments in social and economic fields, efforts towards realizing economic growth, and equitable distribution of income have turned the payment and receipt of taxes to an important and effective tool. Taxation is one of the most important levers in the hands of the government which has a major role in preventing inflation and recession as well as in a fair distribution of wealth in the society. Methodology In order to reach the objectives of this study, the following question was raised: Has the targeted subsidies plan affected the combination of taxes? The statistical population included informed and clearsighted people about factors affecting the tax income including experts of the tax organization. Statistical sle consisted of 35 persons and the method of sle selection was random sling. After collecting questionnaires, data analysis was performed using SPSS software package. Given that the studied variable in this research is measured based on an interval scale, the following relations were used to determine the sle size: Where, r is the upper bound of the relative error determined previously, N is the size of population, S and are population’s parameters (error coefficient is and confidence coefficient in level of 99% is equal to ). The required sle size for each group of statistical population was obtained as the table below. Table1: population and sle sizes GroupPopulation sizeParameter estimation from initial sleFinal sle size meanStandard deviation Taxes on goods and services 823.650.7235 The questionnaire queries the effectiveness of various factors on the amount of tax on goods and services. Validity of questionnaire Validity means to what extend the provided tool measures the considered specific concept (Secaran, 2001). The questionnaire used in this research has been validated according to theoretical foundations and the opinion of experts, intendants and advisers . Reliability of the questionnaire In order to calculate Cronbach alpha, firstly, it is required that the variance of scores of each subset of questions be calculated and then the total variance be determined. Then by replacing them into the following formula the value of the Cronbach alpha will be obtained: Where, k is the number of subsets of questionnaire or questions of questionnaire is the variance of kth question and is the total variance. Thus, Cronbach alpha reflects the amount of positive correlation of the members of a set with each other. Table2: Cronbach alpha coefficient RowQuestionnaireCronbach alpha coefficient 1Taxes on goods and services0.840 Results and discussion In checking his hypothesis, in order to get familiar with the manner of answers provided to the questionnaire and the significance test of each of them, firstly using frequency tables, we checked the answers. Then using tstudent significance test, we checked the mean of answers so that a clear result was obtained about the view of respondents on each question. Table3. reports the results of evaluating frequency percentage of provided answers to independent variable questions (Taxes on goods and services) (%) rowFactorIncrease so muchincreaseDo not changedecreaseDecrease so much 1Decreased export02048.628.62.9 2Increased import25.742.914.317.10 3Decreased production (decreased economic growth)2.977.1017.12.9 4Increased prices general level2.977.101.712.9 5budget deficit (increased government debit, more money issue for supplying government’s expenditure)2.976.514.75.90 *See the rest of the table to text As observed in the questionnaire, the scores given to each item of the questionnaire are as follow: highly reduces (1), reduces (2), does not change (3), increases (4), highly increases(5). Basically, the value of 3 is considered as the comparison criterion and test of mean comparison. The result of this test is reported in table (4) bellow. Now, after tstudent test and understanding the relationship between research variables, we draw path analysis diagrams to understand the direct and indirect effects of dependent and independent variables. Path analysis of variables studied in this research question can be seen in Graph 1 below. Graph 1: Path analysis of research variables (Taxes on goods and services) Conclusion Totally, in the analysis of trends and the share of proceeds of direct and indirect taxes, it is important that before and after the implementation of the plan, no evident and significant change is observed in the trend of components and the total collected direct tax. In other words, the policy of targeted subsidies, at least in the short term, has had no significant effect on the amount of tax on goods and services proceeds.