شناسايي، تحليل كيفي و خوشه بندي ريسك‌هاي پروژه‌هاي خطوط هوايي برق براساس استاندارد PMBOK

Identification, qualitative analysis, ranking, and clustering of risks of overhead power lines projects based on PMBOK standard

پروژه‌هاي خطوط هوايي برق شركت‌هاي برق منطقه‌يي از جمله پروژه‌هاي با حجم سرمايه‌گذاري بالا و داراي عواقب سنگين ناشي از شكست هستند. ممانعت از تاخيرات زياد در اجرا و به‌تبع آن افزايش هزينه‌ها مستلزم اعمال مديريت ريسك به‌نحو مطلوب است. از آنجا كه در هيچ‌يك از شركت‌هاي برق منطقه‌يي فعاليت پژوهشي خاصي در زمينه‌ي مديريت ريسك اين پروژه‌ها انجام نشده است، انجام اين تحقيق توانسته روند جديدي در اين زمينه ايجاد ‌كند. در ابتدا ريسك‌هاي پروژه‌هاي خطوط هوايي برق شناسايي، سپس تحليل كيفي انعطاف‌پذيري با متدولوژي تدوين شده براساس استاندارد PMBOK انجام و اهميت ريسك‌ها در حوزه‌هاي زمان، هزينه، كيفيت و حوزه‌هاي تركيبي آنها تعيين شده است. در انتها ريسك‌هاي مهم شناخته شده با استفاده از امتياز كسب شده در حوزه‌ي «زمان ـ هزينه ـ كيفيت» رتبه بندي و با داده‌كاوي برمبناي روش كلاسيك K-Means خوشه بندي شده است. نتايج نشان مي‌دهد كه طبقه‌ي اجرا و مديريتي پيمانكار بيشترين تعداد ريسك را دارد.

In the electric power industry, as one of the key energy industries, the electrical energy generated in power plants is transmitted to distribution substation via electric power transmission lines. Finally, it is delivering to consumers. The purpose of construction of the transmission lines and distribution substations is to meet the needs of customers, increase stability and reliability of the system, and exchange with neighboring countries. Iranʹs overhead lines projects (transmission and sub-distribution) are monitored by regional electric companies of the country with the aim of supplying electricity to different provinces in order to meet energy requirements and customer satisfaction. The main phases of the projects are Initial phase, Design and Engineering phase, Procurement phase, Implementation phase, and the Final phase. In each phase, projects can be faced with specific and effective risks that can affect their aims. These risks caused the majority of the mentioned projects to face with events that each of them can increase the amount of time, cost, and decrease the quality in turn. Perhaps, if risk management is done effectively, the success of these projects, at least in terms of time and cost, will increase. However, with project managers that act only on the basis of their taste and knowledge, the risk management will not have the proper output. Risk identification of these projects on one hand and their ranking on the other hand as parts of complex process of risk management are the major steps of a proper evaluation and timely and appropriate response to these risks. Therefore, in this study, risks are identified based on the librarian studies, semi-structured interviews with experts, and work breakdown structure (WBS). List of identified risks contains 385 risks. Then, according to developed methodology based on PMBOK standard, flexible qualitative analysis was performed, and risk scores in each of areas of "Time", "Cost", "Quality", "Time-Cost", "Time-Quality", "Quality-Cost", and "Time-Cost-Quality" were accomplished. After analyzing, the 84 key risks are identified. At the end, the key risks are ranked using "Time-Cost-Quality" score and clustered using K-Means method. The results showed Execution and Contractor Management category include the most number of risks.