بررسي اثر متغيرهاي اصلي ريسك اعتباري بر بهينه‌سازي تصميم‌گيري پورتفوي تسهيلات (موردكاوي: شعب بانك آينده)

Analysis the effect of main Credit Risk Variables On decision optimization in Credit Portfolio (Case study: Ayandeh of bank branches)

در نگاهي ساده، حوزه‌ي فعاليت بانك‌ها تجهيز و تخصيص منابع است[1] و يكي از مهم‌ترين مسايل و مشكلات مديريت پورتفوي وام، ورشكستگي بانك‌هاست [2]. بنابراين يكي از مهم‌ترين تكنيك‌هاي مورد توجه در بخش مالي و بانكي تكنيك «مديريت ريسك» است .در اين پژوهش پس از تجزيه و تحليل داخلي و خارجي، عوامل موثر بر ريسك اعتباري موردي 136 مشتري حقوقي بانك آينده در فواصل سال‌هاي 1390-1388، به راهكاري موثر جهت كاهش مخاطرات ناشي از اين ريسك پرداخته و با پياده‌سازي آن، به بهبود تصميم‌گيري در بانك كمك ‌كرد. در اين پژوهش، روش اصلي مورد استفاده دلفي[3] است و به‌‌منظور توصيف داده‌ها از آمار توصيفي و نيز براي تحليل داده‌ها و آزمون فرضيه‌هاي تحقيق از آمار استنباطي، نظير آزمون‌هاي همبستگي و رگرسيون و معادلات ساختاري، استفاده شده است. سپس نتايج، با كمك نرم‌افزارهاي SSPS و Lisrel مورد بررسي قرار گرفته و در پايان، مدل پيشنهادي ارايه خواهد شد. نتايج حاصل از تحقيق نشان ميدهد، تمامي معيارهاي موثر بر ريسك اعتباري ــ عامل فروش، عامل وام بانكي، عامل نقدينگي و عامل سودآوري ــ رابطه‌ي مستقيم، مثبت و معناداري بر ريسك اعتباري دارند.

The revision banks are in appropriation and allocation of resources in areas of activity. The banks taking the credit risk of customers based on their requests facilities is covered, since one of the most important problems management of loan portfolio, are the failure of banks. Therefore, today one of the main techniques that have been considered in the financial sector and banking, is risk management techniques. This paper is the analysis of internal and external factors influencing credit risk of the “Ayandeh bank” from 136 corporate customers in the period during 2010 to 2012 years, the effective strategy reducing of the risk, and the its implementation improve decision making in bank helped. The main method of research to describe data accomplished by “Delphi” method. Then, descriptive statistics and inferential statistics, data analysis and hypothesis testing, including tests, correlation and regression, structural equation. The results obtained from the data of corporate customers with softwares "SSPS" and "Lisrel" at the end of the model will be presented. This model show good credit risk at each of the bankʹs corporate customers and more exact estimation of the weaknesses identified by the customer and the bank, s solutions for the improvement of decision-making provide. The results of this research show that great influence of the sales and customer credit risk is the same for debt and asset returns and asset sales, more than any other ratio bankruptcy of and chaos in predicting future situation are effective and the first ratio of debt to cash flow from operations in the important role, the second investment ratios, liquidity ratios after they are placed the results obtained in this research, the effect of credit risk activities at least shows that results also confirm the “Altman” model. This model will show one of the best ways to risk management in banks. The results shows that, of all the criteria affecting the credit risk of the sale, the bank loan, the liquidity and profitability of the direct relationship between positive and are based on credit risk.