برآورد حداكثر بارندگي محتمل در شرايط كمبود آمار و اطلاعات : مطالعه موردي ، شرق استان هرمزگان

Estimation of PMP in data scarcity situation: A case study, East of Hormozgan Province (Iran)

Large hydraulic structures such as dams are designed on extreme situations basis. Probable maximum precipitation (PMP) is one of the most important criteria in this regard. Synoptic methods are considered to be the more desirable ones to calculate PMP. In spite of its accuracy, relying on huge and not readily data is the main obstacle in extensively applying the method. To overcome this problem, a number of statistical methods that use only maximum precipitation have been developed, though the precision is reduced. An effort to compare these methods and assess the accuracy of the statistical methods in the eastern part of Hormozgan province has been introduced in this paper. The convergence synoptic method and Hirschfield statistical methods (methods one and two) have been used for the evaluations. The results show that the Hirschfieldʹs second method estimates PMP close to the synoptic estimations, after omitting the outliers.