بيش‌اعتمادي مديريت و تجديد ارائه ي صورت‌هاي مالي: شواهدي از بورس اوراق بهادار تهران

Managerial Overconfidence and Financial Restatement: Evidence from Tehran Stock Exchange

بيش اعتمادي مديريت به عنوان يكي از ويژگي‌هاي رفتاري مديران، مي‌تواند بر كيفيت گزارش‌گري مالي و در نتيجه تجديد ارائه صورت‌هاي مالي تأثيرگذار باشد. با توجه به فراواني موارد تجديد ارائه صورت‌هاي مالي شركت‌هاي ايراني، هدف اصلي اين پژوهش بررسي تأثير بيش‌اعتمادي مديريت بر تجديد ارائه صورت‌هاي مالي شركت‌هاي پذيرفته شده در بورس اوراق بهادار تهران است. در اين راستا، اطلاعات 138 شركت پذيرفته شده در بورس اوراق بهادار تهران در بازه زماني 1392-1386 بررسي شده است. سرمايه‌گذاري بيش از حد در دارايي‌ها به‌عنوان سنجه‌اي از بيش‌اعتمادي مديريت به‌كار رفته است. رگرسيون لجستيك و رگرسيون خطي چند متغيره با روش داده‌هاي تركيبي براي آزمون فرضيه‌هاي پژوهش استفاده شده است. يافته‌هاي پژوهش نشان داد كه بيش‌اعتمادي مديريت با رخداد تجديد ارائه با اهميت صورت‌هاي مالي و شدت آن رابطه معناداري ندارد. به بيان ديگر، اين ويژگي رفتاري مديريت بر رخداد تجديد ارائه با اهميت و شدت تجديد ارائه صورت‌هاي مالي اثرگذار نيست.

Introduction "Managerial overconfidence is defined as a predisposition to project more positive outcomes or overestimate the probability of outcomes" (Malmendier and Tate, 2005). Presley and Abbott (2013) argue that "overconfident CEOs may be providing unjustifiably optimistic assurances about the results of operation and financial position of firm". Overconfident CEOs believe that the overly-aggressive accounting positions are really realizable on an ex ante basis. That is, firms with overconfident CEOs are more probable to make unattainable accounting estimates. Accordingly, it is expected that in firms with overconfident CEO, there may be a higher occurrence of financial restatements when these already financial reporting decisions do not come to true realization. In sum, financial reporting requires the use of estimates and assumptions. On the other hand, managerial overconfidence is a significant factor that can influence the accounting estimates, financial reporting quality, and financial restatement. Although in Iran most financial restatements are not forced, most Iranian firms restate their financial statements (Khajavi and Ghadirian Arani, 2014; Khajavi and Ghadirian Arani, 2015). Consequently, the objectives of this study are twofold. First, this study investigates the impact of managerial overconfidence on occurrence of material financial restatements. Second the study objective is to examine if managerial overconfidence has significant impact on magnitude of financial restatements among Iranian listed firms in Tehran Stock Exchange (TSE). Research Hypotheses Based on the preceding theoretical framework regarding the effect of managerial overconfidence on financial restatement, research hypotheses were developed as follows: H1: There is a positive relationship between managerial overconfidence and incidence of material financial restatement. H2: There is a positive relationship between managerial overconfidence and magnitude of financial restatement. Methods Our study is a quantitative research that uses the scientific method and empirical evidence. The empirical data was collected from a panel consisting of 138 nonfinancial firms listed in the TSE, over the seven-year period of 2007 to 2013. Magnitude of restatement is measured using the amount of net income restatement. The over-investment is selected as a managerial overconfidence measure. Logit and multivariable linear regression analysis was used to test the hypotheses on a panel data model. Eviews 8 software was used to run the tests. Results The results of the analysis of regression models show that over-investments are not related to occurrence of material restatement and magnitude of restatement. In other words, managerial overconfidence has no significant impact on financial restatement. The findings of research concerning control variables indicate that profitability not only negatively influences incidence of material financial restatement, but also is negatively related to magnitude of financial restatement. However, leverage and firm size have no significant impact on incidence of material financial restatement and magnitude of financial restatement. Discussion and Conclusion The main findings of this study indicate that there is no relationship between managerial overconfidence and financial restatement. In other words, this behavioral characteristic of management has no impact on financial restatement of Iranian firms. This result is inconsistent with Presley and Abbott (2013) and Schranda and Zechman’s (2015) findings and with the conceptual model regarding the effect of managerial overconfidence on financial restatement. Additionally, these findings are indirectly inconsistent with prior studies regarding the effects of managerial overconfidence onaccounting conservatism (e.g. Ahmed and Duellman, 2013; Hwang et al., 2014; Ramshe and Molanazari, 2014; Foroughi and NokhbeFallah, 2014). Our findings show that financial performance negatively affects financial restatement. Based on these findings, it can be concluded that managers of poor-performance firms, regardless of their future performance and its estimation, prepare financial reports and eventually forced to restate them. Lack of market reaction to the restatement of financial statements as an inverse measure of the financial reporting quality is the probable reason for this manager’s action. In other words, poor-performance firms, irrespective of the overconfidence level of their management, use restatement of financial statements as a cover for poor financial performance. Keywords: Managerial Overconfidence, Financial Restatement, Over-Investment, Management Behaviour.