راهبرد هسته اي ايران در دوره پهلوي دوم از منظر واقع گرايي

Iran's Nuclear Stt·ategy undet· the Second Pahlavi: A Realist Perspective

اﻓﺰاﯾﺶ ﻗﯿﻤﺖ ﻧﻔﺖ در ﺳﺎلﻫﺎي1972 و 1973 ، ﺑﻪ ﺛﺒﺎت ﺳﯿﺎﺳﯽ ﮐﺸﻮر و دورﻧﻤﺎي ﺟﺎﯾﮕـﺎه اﯾـﺮان در ﺧﺎورﻣﯿﺎﻧﻪ ﻣﻨﺠﺮ ﺷﺪ ﺗﺎ رژﯾﻢ وﻗﺖ اﯾﺮان ﺑﻬﺮهﺑﺮداري از ﺗﮑﻨﻮﻟﻮژي ﻫﺴﺘﻪاي ﺑﺮاي ﺗﻮﻟﯿـﺪ ﺑـﺮق ﻫﺴـﺘﻪ اي را ﺑـﻪ ﺻﻮرت ﺟﺪّي در دﺳﺘﻮر ﮐﺎر ﻗﺮار دﻫﺪ. اﯾﻦ ﻣﻬﻢ ﺑﺎ ﺗﻮﺟﻪ ﺑﻪ ﭼﺸـﻢ اﻧـﺪازﻫﺎي ﺗﻮﺳـﻌﻪ اي اﯾـﺮان ، ﺿـﺮورﺗﯽ اﻧﮑﺎرﻧﺎﭘﺬﯾﺮ ﺑﻪ ﻧﻈﺮ ﻣﯽرﺳﯿﺪ و ﺣﺘﯽ آﻣﺮﯾﮑﺎ ﻫﻢ آن را ﺗﻮﺻﯿﻪ ﻣﯽﮐﺮد. اﻣﺎ ﻫﻤﺰﻣﺎﻧﯽ اﯾﻦ ﺗﺼﻤﯿﻢ ﺑﺎ آزﻣﺎﯾﺶ اﺗﻤﯽ ﻫﻨﺪ، ﺗﺮدﯾﺪﻫﺎ را در ﺧﺼﻮص ﻧﯿّﺎت واﻗﻌﯽ ﺷﺎه در ﺑﺎب ﺑﺮﻧﺎﻣﮥ ﻫﺴﺘﻪاي ﺑﯿﺸﺘﺮ ﺑﺮﻣﯽاﻧﮕﯿﺰاﻧﺪ و اﯾﻦ ﭘﺮﺳﺶ ﺑﻪ ذﻫﻦ ﻣﯽرﺳﺪ ﮐﻪ آﯾﺎ ﺗﻨﻬﺎ دﻻﯾﻞ ﺗﻮﺳﻌﻪاي، ﺷﺎه اﯾﺮان را ﺑﻪ ﺳﻮي ﺻﻨﻌﺖ ﻫﺴﺘﻪاي ﺳﻮق داد؟ آﯾﺎ روﯾﮑﺮد ﺷﺎه ﺑﻌﺪ از اﺣﺴﺎس ﻗﺪرت از ﻃﺮﯾﻖ اﻓﺰاﯾﺶ ﺑﻬﺎي ﻧﻔﺖ در ﻣﻨﻄﻘﻪ ﺗﻐﯿﯿﺮ ﮐﺮده ﺑﻮد و او ﺗﺜﺒﯿﺖ ﺳﻠﻄﮥ ﻣﻨﻄﻘﻪاي ﺧـﻮد را در دﺳﺘﯿﺎﺑﯽ ﺑﻪ ﺳﻼح ﻫﺴﺘﻪاي و در ﭘﯽ آن، اﯾﺠﺎد ﺑﺎزدارﻧﺪﮔﯽ ﻫﺴﺘﻪاي ﻣﯽﭘﻨﺪاﺷﺖ؟ ﺑﺮاي ﭘﺎﺳﺦ ﺑـﻪ دو ﭘﺮﺳـﺶ اﺳﺎﺳﯽ ﭘﮋوﻫﺶ، ﻧﺎﮔﺰﯾﺮ ﻣﯽﺑﺎﯾﺪ ﻣﻘﺪﻣﺎت ﺗﺎرﯾﺨﯽ را در ﻧﻈﺮ ﺑﮕﯿﺮﯾﻢ: ﺗﺎرﯾﺨﭽﮥ ﺗﻔﮑﺮ ﻫﺴﺘﻪاي در اﯾـﺮان ، راﺑﻄـﮥ ﺻﻨﻌﺖ ﻫﺴﺘﻪاي و ﺳﯿﺎﺳﺖﻫﺎي ﺗﻮﺳﻌﻪاي اﯾﺮان، ﻧﮕﺎه ﻏﺮب و ﺑﻪ وﯾﮋه آﻣﺮﯾﮑﺎ در ﺑﺎب ﺻﻨﻌﺖ ﻫﺴﺘﻪاي اﯾﺮان و ﺗﺄﺛﯿﺮ دﯾﮕﺮ ﻋﻮاﻣﻞ ﻣﺎﻧﻨﺪ ﻧﻔﺖ و ﺑﺤﺮان ﻧﻔﺘﯽ دﻫﮥ 70 م.، ﻋﻮاﻣﻞ ﺑﯿﻦاﻟﻤﻠﻠﯽ و ﺣﺘﯽ ﻋﻮاﻣﻞ رواﻧﺸﻨﺎﺧﺘﯽ ﺷـﺨﺺ ﺷﺎه. ﺑﻪ ﻧﻈﺮ ﻣﯽرﺳﺪ ﮐﻪ ﺣﺎﮐﻤﯿﺖ ﭘﻬﻠﻮي، دﺳﺖ ﮐﻢ در ﭘﯽ اﯾﺠﺎد ﻧﻮﻋﯽ ﺑﺎزدارﻧﺪﮔﯽ ﻫﺴﺘﻪاي از ﻃﺮﯾﻖ دﺳﺘﯿﺎﺑﯽ ﺑﻪ ﺑﻤﺐ ﯾﺎ رﺳﯿﺪن ﺑﻪ ﻧﻘﻄﮥ ﻏﯿﺮﻗﺎﺑﻞ ﺑﺎزﮔﺸﺖ، ﯾﻌﻨﯽ آﺳﺘﺎﻧﮥ ﺗﻮﻟﯿﺪ ﺑﻤﺐ و ﻧﻪ ﻟﺰوﻣﺎ ﺗﻮﻟﯿﺪ آن، در ﻣﯿﺎنﻣﺪت ﺑﻮد.

The 1972 and 1973 oil price shocks, political stability and a promising furure tor Iran in the Middle East propelled the government to acquire nuclear technolob'Y to establish nuclear power plants tor electlicity. Consideting Iran's development prospects, the move towards nuclear energy was deemed inevitable and was even recommended by the United States. Iran's move towards nuclear energy was concurrent with India's nuclear tests which cast doubts on the Shah's real incentives for acquiring nuclear capabilities and raised the question as to whether the Shah's dash for nuclear technology was exclusively for development goals? Did the oil price hikes infuse the Shah with a heightened sense of power and led him to deem nuclear weapons as essential for establishing his regional hegenomy and creating nuclear deterrence? To provide answers to these questions a review of historical antecedents is necessary; the history of nuclear thought in Iran, the relationship between nuclear industry and development policies, US attitutdc towards Iranian nuclear industry and other factors such as oil and oil crisis of the 70's, along with intemationsl factors or even the Shah's psychological traits. h seems the Pahlavi government sought to strike a nuclear deterrence of sorts to say the least or to reach a point of no return and stand on the threshhold of making a bomb in the mid-term, not necessarily making it