تحليل پراكنش تصادفات جاده اي منجر به فوت با رويكرد اقليمي مطالعه موردي: استان اردبيل

Spatial analysis of road accidents resulting in death approach to climate Case Study: Ardabil Province

حوادث جاده اي و تلفات ناشي از آن يكي از علل اساسي مرگ ومير در سراسر جهان به شمار مي رود كه هزينه هاي اقتصادي زيادي را بر اقتصاد كشورها تحميل كرده است. چهارعاملانسان،وسيله نقليه،جادهومحيطدرامرتصادفات دخالت دارندكه در اين ميان عوامل محيطي و اقليمي سهم قابل توجهي را به خود اختصاص مي دهند. مولفه هاي «يخبندان، رطوبت و دما» از عوامل موثر اقليمي مي باشند كه نقش عمده اي در تصادفات جاده اي دارند. از اين رو پژوهش حاضر به تحليل پراكنش تصادفات جاده اي منجر به فوت با رويكرد اقليمي در فصول مختلف سال با استفاده از سيستم اطلاعات جغرافياي در استان اردبيل پرداخته است. روش پژوهش از نوع توصيفي– تحليلي است. نظر به اينكه تصادف يك پديده مكاني است و تحليل هاي ArcGISنيز مبتني بر مكان است، براي تحليل از GIS و روش درونيابي كريجينگاستفاده شده است. در اين پژوهش، تصادفات جاده اي استان اردبيل در فصول مختلف سال و با در نظر گرفتن عوامل اقليمي يخبندان، دما و رطوبت در محدوده زماني 1389 الي1393 بررسي شده است. نتايج اين تحقيق نشان مي دهد كه از 762 مورد تصادف انجام شده 35 درصد در فصل تابستان، ۲۵/۷۵ درصد در بهار، ۲۴/۵۵ درصد در پاييز و ۱۴/۷۰ درصد در زمستان اتفاق افتاده است. مقايسه نمودار تعداد تصادفات منجر به فوت برمبناي ماه هاي سال، با نمودار تعداد روزهاي يخبندان استان اردبيل نشان مي دهد كه تصادفات جاده اي در استان اردبيل در ماه هاي يخبندان به دليل كاهش تردد وسايل نقليه گردشگران نسبت به ماه هاي غير يخبندان كمتراست، بيشترين تصادف از نظر رطوبت با ميزان رطوبت 69-72 درصد و از لحاظ دما، در دماي خيلي پايين با «8» درجه سانتي گراد و خيلي بالا «16» درجه سانتي گراد اتفاق افتاده است.

Introduction: The statistics show that the percentage of accidents in adverse climatic conditions varies from 7 to 12 percent due to the climatic and topographic conditions of the road route and its geometric shape. Our country is also considering the extent and existence of elevations and the transportation network، During its course it is exposed to various weather conditions; As every year more than 270 snowstorms and mountains of extensive and prolonged glaciers، The collapse of the massive and massive avalanches، the snowball، the slipping of the roads، Dust and sand storm and consequently disturbance in transportation network. Ardabil province has a complex climate as part of the country's terrestrial zone with its climatic highlands. Which has led to an escalation of road accidents in the province. For this reason، identification of effective climatic factors in road accidents Along with the accidental and unsafe spots of roads، it is considered important and useful. Based on this study، due to the importance of road accidents and the impact of climate phenomena in road accidents، Investigates the relationship between road accidents and climatic conditions in crashes has been located in the districts of Ardabil province during the period from 2010 to 2015. The main objective of this study was to analyze the distribution of road accidents with climate attitude using GIS and Kriging interpolation operations، In order to investigate the relationship between climatic phenomena and road accidents along with determining the hazardous points of roads in Ardabil province. Materialsand Methods: The method of this research is descriptive-analytic of the applied type. Information on the number of crashes leading to death in the timeframe of 5 years from 2010 to 1393، it has been obtained from the Forensic Medicine and Police Department of the Ardebil province. In the present study، information was first entered in the Excel environment In the next step، by specifying the X and Y stations listed، The information entered into the GIS environment then the desired layer was extracted And using Kriging's interpolation operation A map of each of the elements and climatic factors affecting road accidents was prepared in the GIS environment. Then، to measure the correlation between road deaths and climatic factors (freezing، temperature and humidity) Pearson correlation coefficient was used. Discussion and Results: In this study، to analyze the distribution of road deaths with a climatic approach in Ardebil province Ice، temperature and humidity indexes were used. The analysis of the crash data in the province of Ardabil indicates that Most of the accidents with 35% in the study period were in summer. And after the summer season، the highest accidents were in the spring with an abundance of 25.55%. In the fall and winter season، 24.55% and 70.7% of road accidents respectively occurred. Also، the analysis of Pearson correlation coefficient in the research indicators shows that between the ice days and the increase in road accidents leading to death with a significant level (0.05)، between increasing the humidity and increasing the number of accidents leading to death resulted in a significant level (0.01). However، there is no significant relationship between the effect of temperature and the increase in road accidents leading to death. Conclusions: The investigation of accidents leading to the death of Ardebil province using the GIS shows that most accidents occurred in the first 6 months of the year this is due to the smoothness of atmospheric conditions and the high traffic of vehicles on the roads. The temperature element analysis of road deaths suggests that most accidents occurred at low temperatures and the lowest crashes occurred at moderate temperatures. Analysis of the moisture element on road deaths suggests that as the humidity increases، the accident rate also increases.