كاربرد توابع وزن - شاهد در مدلسازي ارتباط ميان متغيرهاي محيطي و الگوي پراكنش محوطه هاي باستاني مطالعه موردي: شهرستان هاي بروجن و لردگان استان چهارمحال و بختياري

Application of weight-evidence in modeling the linkage between environmental variables and distribution pattern of archaeological sites Case study: Borujen and lordegan cities of Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari

اطلاعات در زمينه باستان شناسي و پراكنش نقاط باستاني به جهت امكان تجزيه و تحليل جوامع گذشته و آثار برجاي مانده از آنها، از اهميت خاصي برخوردار است. اما متاسفانه اطلاعات ما در مورد محوطه هاي باستاني و الگوي پراكنش آنها اغلب با نقص و عدم قطعيت همراه است.در مطالعه حاضر از تكنيك هاي آماري و سيستم اطلاعات جغرافيايي جهت دريافت ارتباط ميان متغيرهاي محيطي (شامل: فاصله از چشمه ها، فاصله از رودخانه هاي دائمي، فاصله از قنات ها و چاه هاي آب، فاصله از جاده هاي مالرو و فاصله از قبرستان ها) كه بر الگوي پراكنش جمعيت بشر در اعصار مختلف تعيين كننده و تاثيرگذار بوده اند،استفاده شده است. در ميان تكنيك هاي آماري، توابع وزن-شاهد قادرند از دانسته ها و نادانسته هاي كاربر در مورد وقوع يك پديده (مكان و محوطه هاي باستاني) استفاده نمايد و با پردازش فرضيات از روي دانسته ها و محدود كردن فرضيه ها در مواردي كه دانش دقيق وجود ندارد و در نهايت تركيب وزني ورودي ها، نقص اطلاعات را در نتايج نهايي نمايش دهد. براي ارزيابي صحت مدلسازي از آماره ROC استفاده شده است و نتايج تحقيق نشاندهنده توانايي بالاي اين مدل در پيش بيني پهنه هاي مساعد مكان ها و محوطه هاي باستاني شناخته نشده در شهرستان هاي بروجن و لردگان استان چهارمحال و بختياري بوده است (۰/۸۹=ROC). اين رويكرد بعنوان راهكاري مناسب جهت تصميم گيري و مديريت در زمينه پژوهش هاي باستان شناسي است و از نتايج اين تحقيق مي توان جهت مديريت و برنامه ريزي بررسي ها و كاوش هاي باستان شناسي، اولويت بندي پهنه هاي مستعد موجود از لحاظ اهميت باستاني و در نهايت صرفه جويي در هزينه هاي زماني و اقتصادي استفاده نمود.

Research and understanding human societies past and process of changes social، economic، cultural، technological and etc ، among the most important archaeological science goals ، that This important through studying the works and material evidence remains، is possible. Archaeological sites as a place of activity and life of human societies past، Of particular importance are the archaeological science. Today، with field projects (search and archaeological excavations) and Study findings from these activities، the possibility of obtaining information and better understanding of these communities have been provided. The interdisciplinary nature of science of archeology has caused this science of of techniques and different sciences such as physics، chemistry، biology، geology، etc. As well as geographic information systems and statistical techniques for further information and analysis of the results of field work، benefit. Although information about archaeological sites and their distribution is often associated with defects and uncertainty ، but given the importance of environmental factors in locating ، distribution and development of human settlements and cultures، enables researchers ، to study the environment variables and natural conditions of each region and location of archaeological sites identified in the a model for understanding environmental factors affecting the locating، distribution، growth and physical development sites found . in this way by recognizing environment variables relation to archaeological sites identified where ، enables us to provide a model to predict the location area which for various reasons have not been identified in the archaeological survey . accordingly، in this study، statistical techniques and GIS to get the relation between environmental variables (including distance from the spring، the distance of the permanent rivers، away from subterranean and Water wells ، away from the nomadic road and away from cemeteries) that the human population distribution pattern of different ages decisive and influential have been used . Among the statistical techniques، weight-evidence functions have ability to understand and realize the phenomenon (archaeological sites) and assumptions with the knowledge and limiting assumptions in cases where there is not an exact knowledge، the weighted combination of inputs، and lack of information showed on the results. to assess the accuracy of modeling the ROC statistic is used (ROC=0.89). In the present study the geographical coordinates of 296 sites Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari Province that had been identified in the archaeological survey ، the selection was recorded . The geographical coordinates of this sites in the software Arc map 9.3 point layer conversion and then these layers were transferred to analyze the software Idrisi Taiga. furthermore in order to review evidence and assumptions processing in accordance with charts the distance of environment variables and many archaeological sites procurement and were studied . the results this studi show that environment variables such as Including distance from the spring، the distance of the permanent rivers، away from subterranean and Water Wells ، away from the nomadic road and away from cemeteries ، on distribution kind and focus archaeological sites the in this two cires has had an impact . among these variables ، variable distance from the river permanent greatest impact on establishment archaeological sites have been so that 78 percent of the locations in the distance is less than 800 meters from river . the highest potential and environmental talents to establish human societies and the existence of undiscovered archaeological sites، is In the western parts of the city Lordegan، this results on the one hand indicates the need to review and revise the results of the archaeological survey past in these areas and on the other hand focus field activities highlight in areas In areas with potential environmental . such research not only as an appropriate strategy for decision-making and management of archaeological research and activities ، also the results of such research can be used to prioritize environmental zones are areas of potential archaeological sites ، but also due to the limitations in archaeological project ، the results of such research can be to prioritize environmental zones for the establishment of ancient societies and save time and reduce financial costs of archaeological used.