بررسي كشش درآمدي مخارج سرانه بهداشتي در كشورهاي گروه دي هشت: رويكردهاي رگرسيون انتقال ملايم پانلي (PST) و رگرسيون متوسط ميان گروهي(MG)

Estimation the Income Elasticity of Per Capita Health Care Expenditure in D8 Countries: PSTR and MG Approaches

مقدمه: امروزه رفاه اقتصادي كشورها وابستگي شديدي به سهم مخارج بهداشتي از توليد كشورها دارد. در اين راستا هدف مطالعه حاضر بررسي رابطه بين مخارج بهداشتي و رفاه اقتصادي كشورهاي گروه دي هشت و از سويي تشخيص نوع گروه كالايي مخارج بهداشتي در كشورهاي منتخب است. روش پژوهش: در اين پژوهش كاربردي به منظور بررسي ارتباط بين مخارج بهداشتي و رفاه اقتصادي كشورهاي گروه دي هشت طي دوره زماني ۲۰۱۴-۱۹۹۵ ميلادي از رگرسيون انتقال ملايم پانلي و به منظور بررسي ارتباط بلندمدت و تشخيص اين كه مخارج بهداشتي در كشورهاي منتخب از چه نوع گروه كالايي مي باشد، از پانل ميان گروهي استفاده شده است. براي برآورد مدل نيز از نرم افزار هاي ۱۴ Stata Eviews9،Matlab بهره گرفته شده است. يافته ها: لحاظ نمودن يك تابع انتقال با يك پارامتر آستانه اي كه بيانگر يك مدل دو رژيمي است، براي تصريح رابطه غيرخطي ميان متغيرهاي مورد بررسي كفايت ميكند. براساس نتايج به دست آمده، حد آستانهاي براي كشورهاي گروه دي هشت برابر ۷/۲۱ و پارامتر شيب نيز براي ۱۷/۵۶ برآورد شده است. نتيجه گيري: توليد ناخالص داخلي سرانه در رژيم اول (قسمت خطي) و دوم (مجموع قسمت خطي و غيرخطي) تأثير مثبت بر مخارج سرانه بهداشتي كشورهاي گروه دي هشت دارد. همچنين هزينه هاي عمومي سلامت جمعيت ۰ تا ۱۴ و گروه سني ۶۵ ساله و بالاتر، در رژيم اول اثر منفي و پس از عبور از حد آستانه اي و وارد شدن به رژيم دوم اثر مثبت بر مخارج سرانه بهداشتي كشورهاي گروه دي هشت داشته است. نهايتاً نتايج حاصل از رويكرد پانل ميان گروهي حاكي از آن است كه كشش درآمدي كالاي سلامت در كشورهاي گروه دي هشت كمتر از واحد بوده و اين كالا لوكس تلقي نمي گردد.

Introduction: Economic welfare is highly dependent on the health expenditure share of national output. In this regard, the purpose of this paper was to investigate the relationship between health expenditure and economic welfare in D8 countries and assessment of commodity group of health expenditure in this countries. Methods: In order to investigate the relationship between health expenditure and economic welfare in D8 countries during 1995-2014, Panel smooth transition regression method was used. Also to verify the long- run relationship between variables and for selection kind of commodity group Panel mean of group method was used. Results: Moreover, considering one transition function and one threshold parameter, as a two regime model, is sufficient to specification of nonlinear relationship between variables. The results indicate that threshold value is 7.21 and the estimated slope parameter is 17.56. Conclusion: GDP per capita in the first (The linear part) and second regimes (The sum of the linear and nonlinear parts) has positive impact on health expenditure per capita in D8 countries. The public health costs of population 0-14 and 65-years and older group has negative effects in first regime, and after crossing a threshold and enter the second regime, has positive effects on health expenditure per capita in D8 countries. Finally the results of the PMG approach suggests that the income elasticity of health goods in D8 countries is less than the unit and it is not considered a luxury commodity. Introduction: Economic welfare is highly dependent on the health expenditure share of national output. In this regard, the purpose of this paper was to investigate the relationship between health expenditure and economic welfare in D8 countries and assessment of commodity group of health expenditure in this countries.Methods: In order to investigate the relationship between health expenditure and economic welfare in D8 countries during 1995-2014, Panel smooth transition regression method was used. Also to verify the long- run relationship between variables and for selection kind of commodity group Panel mean of group method was used.Results: Moreover, considering one transition function and one threshold parameter, as a two regime model, is sufficient to specification of nonlinear relationship between variables. The results indicate that threshold value is 7.21 and the estimated slope parameter is 17.56.Conclusion: GDP per capita in the first (The linear part) and second regimes (The sum of the linear and nonlinear parts) has positive impact on health expenditure per capita in D8 countries. The public health costs of population 0-14 and 65-years and older group has negative effects in first regime, and after crossing a threshold and enter the second regime, has positive effects on health expenditure per capita in D8 countries. Finally the results of the PMG approach suggests that the income elasticity of health goods in D8 countries is less than the unit and it is not considered a luxury commodity.