بررسي تأثير توسعه گردشگري و توليد ناخالص داخلي سرانه بر انتشار گاز دي اكسيد كربن در منحني كوزنتس كشورهاي منتخب اسلامي (رويكرد غيرخطي PSTR)

The Effect of Tourism Development and Economic Growth on CO2 Emissions in Kuznets Curve in Selected Islamic Countries (Non-linear Approach PSTR)

هدف از اين مطالعه بررسي نحوه تأثيرگذاري توليد ناخالص داخلي سرانه و توسعه صنعت گردشگري بر انتشار گاز دي اكسيد كربن با استفاده از فرضيه منحني زيست محيطي كوزنتس براي كشورهاي منتخب اسلامي مي­ باشد. براي انجام اين مطالعه از تكنيك اقتصادسنجي رگرسيون انتقال ملايم پانلي طي سال­ هاي 2013-1995 استفاده شده است. نتايج حاصل از اين مطالعه نشانگر آن است كه در هر دو رژيم خطي و غيرخطي با افزايش توليد ناخالص داخلي ميزان انتشار دي اكسيد كربن افزايش مي ­يابد و اين كشورها قسمت نزولي منحني كوزنتس را تجربه نمي كنند. همچنين نتايج حاكي از آن است كه براي اين كشورها توسعه گردشگري منجر به بهبود كيفيت محيط زيست مي ­شود، مصرف انرژي منجر به كاهش كيفيت محيط زيست شده و افزايش مخارج سلامتي انتشار دي اكسيد كربن را افزايش مي­ دهد.

Abstract The aim of this study was to determine the impact of economic growth and tourism development on carbon dioxide emissions using the Environmental Kuznets Curve hypothesis for the countries of Islam. In this study of econometric regression techniques Panel Smooth Transition During the years 1995-2013 were used. The results of this study shows that in both the regime and non-linear line with GDP growth rate of carbon dioxide emissions increased and those countries downstream part of the Kuznets curve don't experience. The results also indicate that these countries to develop tourism led to improve the quality of the environment, energy consumption could lead to a reduction in the quality of the environment and an increase in carbon dioxide emissions health spending increases. Introduction The aim of this study was to investigate how to influencing GDP per capita and the development of the tourism industry on the release of carbon dioxide gas by using environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis for selected countries regard Islamic. To do this the study of the Panel data Econometrics techniques gentle transition regression during the 2013 is used. Methodology It is also used in this pattern of Econometrics regression is: Experimental studies for more detailed investigation confirmed the likelihood of the hypothesis of EKC fitted in addition to other variables variable economic growth, there is also essential to be fitted in this study the tourism index variables, energy consumption, gross fixed capital structure and health spending is also in the model. Model estimation and results analysis The results of the estimation of the model regime in the PSTR two table (6) terms. Slope parameter that indicates the speed of the transition from one regime to another regime, is estimated to be the equivalent of 72.1. As well as a GDP per capita threshold for selected countries as well as the amount of Islamic 67.6. In other words, when the value of the gross domestic product per capita is equal to 67.6, influencing the direction or intensity of gross domestic product per capita on carbon dioxide. In other words, the equivalent of a 725.1 regime change happens fast. Discussion and Conclusion Generally, in order to check such experimental studies on the curve, the dependent variable decreases the quality of the environment considered to be fitted in addition to the explanatory variable and the GDP per capita can be fitted, depending on the goals of the research, the amount of investment capital being fitted open economy, energy consumption, population growth, urbanization, etc. And depending on the statistical sample and study period of experimental results obtained differently. Results Overall analysis of the relationship between energy consumption, gross domestic product and release carbon di oxide fitted through the identification of the factors influencing the release of carbon dioxide gas fitted fitted provides. Changes in energy consumption relative to GDP by virtue of a change in the intensity of energy and finally the release of carbon oxide affect the fitted fitted these to be pointed out that between energy consumption and emission of carbon dioxide there are relationship fitted.