پديد آورندگان :
رباط ميلي، ربابه پژوهشگاه بين المللي زلزله شناسي و مهندسي زلزله , اميني حسيني، كامبد پژوهشگاه بين المللي زلزله شناسي و مهندسي زلزله - پژوهشكده مديريت خطرپذيري و بحران , استوار ايزدخواه، ياسمين پژوهشگاه بين المللي زلزله شناسي و مهندسي زلزله - پژوهشكده مديريت خطرپذيري و بحران
كليدواژه :
تهران , پايگاه هاي جستجو و نجات , آسيب پذيري , زلزله , مديريت بحران
چكيده فارسي :
وقوع زلزله هاي شديد همواره اثرات زيان بار و جبران ناپذيري را خصوصاً در شهرهاي بزرگ و پرجمعيت از جنبه هاي فيزيكي، اجتماعي و اقتصادي به همراه دارد. از طرفي با توجه به محدوديت هاي مالي و اجرايي، امكان كاهش ريسك و كنترل پيامدهاي زلزله در همه جهات معمولاً فراهم نيست. بنابراين مي بايست مهم ترين عوامل تاثيرگذار در ريسك زلزله شناسايي شده و با در نظر گرفتن نحوه مشاركت و ميزان اهميت هر يك در افزايش يا كاهش ريسك، تدابير لازم جهت مديريت بحران اتخاذ گردد. در تحقيق حاضر، براي مكان يابي پايگاه هاي امداد و نجات در بافت هاي شهري، مدلي جديد مبتني بر تركيب مولفه هاي خطر، آسيب پذيـري و وضعيت ظرفيت هاي موجود ارائه شده است. به اين منظور شاخصي با عنوان شاخص تجميعي ايمني در برابر زلزله (IESI) معرفي شده كه از تركيب وزني مولفه هاي مرتبط حاصل مي شود. در اين روش، مولفه خطر از پارامترهاي خطر زلزله و مخاطرات ثانويه و مولفه آسيب پذيري از پارامتـرهاي آسيب پذيري فيـزيكي و انسانـي تشكيل شده است كه هـر دوي اين مولفه ها اثر كاهنده بر ايمني دارند. همچنين مولفه وضعيت ظرفيت هاي موجود كه اثري افزاينده بر ميزان ايمني دارد بر اساس سه پارامتر فضاهاي خدماتـي، ميـزان آمادگـي و تـوان برنامه ريـزي و مديريت شهـري مورد سنجش قرار مي گيرد. در نهايت شاخص ارائه شده براي برآورد ايمني در برابر زلزله از تركيب شاخص هاي خطر، آسيب پذيري و وضعيت ظرفيت هاي موجود براي پهنه هاي آماري هر منطقه شهري محاسبه مي شود و مكان يابي پايگاه هاي جستجو و نجات به كمك اين شاخص انجام مي پذيرد. در ضمن، مولفه هايي كه امكان تغيير در كوتاه مدت براي آنها وجود داشته، بهبود داده شده اند و شاخص ايمني در برابر زلزله مجدداً محاسبه و مكان يابي پايگاه ها انجام گرفته است.
چكيده لاتين :
Urban fabrics in developing countries are growing rapidly, without sufficient attention to sustainable development criteria. Nowadays, there are many big cities that accommodate millions of residents, while most of them are exposed to natural hazards. Accordingly, the growth rate of big cities has been considerable in Iran especially during the last decades. More than 70 percentages of population are now living in urban areas, while 60 years ago this proportion was vice versa. This has caused further exposure of human lives to natural disasters, including strong earthquakes. Therefore, in the occurrence of an earthquake in such fabrics, heavy destruction and considerable socio-economic consequences can be expectable.
In order to reduce the potential impacts of earthquakes in such cities, different measures could be taken into account to mitigate vulnerability and increase coping capacities. However, due to the shortages of technical and financial resources, especially in developing countries like Iran, priority activities should be selected based on the acceptable risk level and available capacities to determine the most feasible and effective interventions in different urban zones. Therefore, it is necessary to develop appropriate methodologies to be used for prioritization of applicable risk reduction and disaster management measures.
In this paper, a new approach is developed to assess the existing earthquake risk in urban fabrics. For this purpose, different physical as well as socio-economic parameters affecting the safety level of urban areas have been identified and classified to understand their impacts on earthquake risk level. The parameters in the model and their weights have been determined based on expert judgments, using AHP (Analytic Hierarchy Process). For this purpose, a questionnaire based survey has been implemented through city managers, engineers, planners and disaster management experts. According to the results of the survey, most important parameters and indicators have been selected and weighted. Additionally, the effects of different measures on improving response capacities and the efficiency of other applicable interventions on risk level have been evaluated.
By applying this model, the effectiveness of developing community-based activities as well as the establishment of additional search and rescue bases for risk reduction have been evaluated and compared. The results revealed that besides the importance of capacity building in relevant search, rescue and relief organizations (such as fire-fighting stations or medical care centers), promoting public participation in disaster risk management activities can also be considered as an important priority in short-term planning to reduce earthquake risk and to improve response capacity.
The proposed methodology can be applied for prioritizing risk reduction and management measures in any places based on local conditions, if the relevant parameters could be estimated locally. By using this decision support measure, the local managers might be able to evaluate the effectiveness of any different interventions on risk and safety level of urban fabrics, before approving intervention plans. This can help them to allocate the limited available budget to the most critical projects.
