شناسايي و اولويت‌بندي عوامل مؤثر بر عدم انجام به‌موقع عمليات توليد نيشكر با استفاده از تحليل سلسله مراتبي (AHP)

Identifying and Prioritizing the Effective Parameters on Lack of Timeliness of Operations of Sugarcane Production using Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP)

انجام به‌موقع عملیات كشاورزی بر مقدار عملكرد هر محصولی اثر مستقیمی دارد. به‌طوری‌كه برای محصول نیشكر، هرگونه تأخیر در زمان انجام عملیات زراعی باعث كاهش عملكرد محصول می‌شود. هدف از این مطالعه، شناسایی و اولویت‌بندی عوامل مؤثر بر عدم انجام به‌موقع عملیات تولید نیشكر است. برای موشكافی و یافتن عوامل اثرگذار، از مصاحبه و نظرخواهی از كارشناسان و متخصصان واحدهای تولیدی در كشت و صنعت‌های نیشكر درباره‌ی لنگی‌های موجود در حین كار و مرور گزارش‌ها و آمار سالیانه عملیات تولید نیشكر استفاده شد. با توجه به نتایج حاصله، عوامل مؤثر بر عدم انجام به‌موقع عملیات تولید نیشكر به‌صورت عامل مدیریت، عامل انسان، عامل ماشین و تأخیرهای زمانی ناشی از روش كار (فرآیند تولید) طبقه‌بندی شد. به‌منظور اولویت‌بندی این عوامل از فرآیند تحلیل سلسله مراتبی (AHP) استفاده شد. بدین منظور، داده‌ها با تكمیل پرسشنامه‌هایی توسط 14 نفر از مدیران تولید واحدهای هفت‌گانه شركت توسعه نیشكر و صنایع جانبی خوزستان در سال زراعی 93-1392 جمع‌آوری شد. اساس كار، اولویت‌بندی عوامل مؤثر بر عدم انجام به‌موقع عملیات تولید از طریق تخصیص وزن نسبی به معیارها و گزینه‌ها با توجه به نظرهای ارائه‌شده در پرسش‌نامه‌ها بود. با استفاده از نرم‌افزار Expert choice تحلیل سلسله مراتبی انجام گرفت. نتایج نشان داد كه عامل ماشین با میانگین وزنی 0/366 مهم‌ترین عامل است. عامل فرآیند تولید با میانگین وزنی 0/298، عامل مدیریت با میانگین وزنی 0/177 و عامل انسان با میانگین وزنی 0/160 به‌ترتیب در رتبه‌های بعدی قرار گرفتند.

<strong >Introduction </strong > Planning and scheduling of farming mechanized operations is very important. If the operation is not performed on time, yield will be reduced. Also for sugarcane, any delay in crop planting and harvesting operations reduces the yield. The most useful priority setting method for agricultural projects is the analytic hierarchy process (AHP). So, this article presents an introductry application manner of the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) as a mostly common method of setting agricultural projects priorities. Analytic Hierarchy process (AHP) is a decision making algorithm developed by Dr. Saatyin 1980. It has many applications as documented in Decision Support System literature. Currently, this technique is widely used in complicated management decision makings which AHP was preferred from other established methodologies as it does not demand prior knowledge of the utility function; it is based on a hierarchy of criteria and attributes reflecting the understanding of the problem, and finally, because it allows relative and absolute comparisons, thus making this method a very robust tool. The purpose of this research is to identify and prioritize the effective parameters on lack of timeliness of operations of sugarcane production using AHP in Khuzestan province of Iran. <strong >Materials and Methods </strong > The effective parameters effecting on lack of timeliness of operations have been defined based on expert’s opinions. A questionnaire and personal interviews have formed the basis of this research. The study was applied to a panel of qualified informants made up of fourteen experts. Those interviewed were distributed in Sugarcane Development and By-products Company in 2013-2014. Then, by using the Analytical hierarchy process, a questionnaire was designed for defining the weight and importance of parameters affecting on lack of timeliness of operations. For this method of evaluation, three main criteria considered were yield criteria, cost criteria and income criteria. Criterions and prioritizing of them was done by questionnaire and interview with sophisticated experts. This technique determined and ranked the importance of criteria affecting on lack of timeliness of operations based on attributing relative weights to factors with respect to comments provided in the questionnaires. By using of software (Expert choice) Analytical Hierarchy Process was done and the inconsistency rate on expert judgments was investigated. Expert Choice software (Expert Choice 1999) was applied to examine the structure of the proposed model and achieve synthesis/ graphical results considering inconsistency ratios. <strong >Results and Discussion </strong > The Expert Choice software performed well in conjunction with the panel of experts for choosing the criteria and assigning weights under the AHP methodology. According to results, effective parameters on lack of timeliness of operations of sugarcane production consist of delays caused by management, delays caused by human, delays caused by machine and delays caused by procedure (the production process).Weight of criteria effective factors (yield, cost and income) on lack of timeliness of operations obtained from paired comparison in the experts’ view which has been calculated with Expert choice software. The result of this survey by AHP techniques showed that cost criteria had the most and income criteria had the least importance for expert in sugarcane production. In this stage of research, alternatives paired comparison relative to criteria was separately formed and information of questionnaire which relates to paired comparison of criteria was obtained. Between effective parameters on lack of timeliness of operations, machine factors to 0.366 weighted average was the most effective factor and production process to 0.298 weighted average, management factors to 0.177 weighted average and human factors to 0.160 weighted average was later respectively (Inconsistence Rate =0.03). The results are examined by monitoring sensitivity analysis while changing the criteria priorities. Since different judgments are made on comparison of criteria, we use sensitivity analysis in order to provide stability and consistence of analysis. With increase or decrease of the criteria, we will conclude that ratio of other indices will not change. <strong >Conclusions </strong > The analytic hierarchy process, as developed by Saaty, has been successfully applied in recent research to cases of agricultural project. This paper looks at AHP as a tool used in Sugarcane Agro-Industries to help in decision making. Results showed that criteria studied in this research can help prioritizing the effective parameters on lack of timeliness of operations of sugarcane production. Cost criteria are the main criteria effective on lack of timeliness operations of sugarcane production. The most important factor is machine factor.