تعيين چرخه عمر شركت با استفاده از نسبت هاي مالي

Firm Life Cycle Determination Using Financial Ratios

پژوهش حاضر بررسي مي‌كند كه آيا با استفاده از نسبت­هاي مالي مي­توان چرخه عمر شركت را تعيين نمود. نسبت­هاي مالي منتخب در اين پژوهش شامل نسبت جاري، نسبت اهرمي و ميزان رشد سودآوري شركت است. در اين پژوهش با داده­هاي گردآوري شده مربوط به سي شركت فعال در بورس اوراق بهادار تهران از سال 1385 تا 1390 سه فرضيه اصلي معني­دار بودن رابطه بين نسبت جاري و چرخه عمر شركت، نسبت اهرمي و چرخه عمر شركت و ميزان رشد سودآوري و چرخه عمر شركت با استفاده از روش رگرسيون حداقل مربعات معمولي مورد آزمون قرار گرفت. نتايج حاكي از تأييد فرضيه­هاي اول و دوم و عدم تأييد فرضيه سوم (معنادار بودن ارتباط بين ميزان رشد سودآوري و چرخه عمر شركت) است. بطور خلاصه اين نتيحه حاصل شد كه بالا بودن نسبت جاري با چرخه حيات عمر شركت رابطه معكوس و نسبت اهرمي با چرخه حيات شركت رابطه مستقيم دارد. يعني شركت­­هايي كه در ابتداي چرخه عمر قرار دارند از نسبت جاري بالا و نسبت اهرمي پايين و شركت­هايي كه در مرحله افول قرار دارند از نسبت جاري پايين و نسبت اهرمي بالا برخوردارند.

Tehran stock exchange is a symbol of local capital investment for stock brokers and traders to trade stocks and bonds. One of the main factors for investor is to know about the firm life cycle stage, because the growth potential and future profitability of the firms are greatly dependent on the firm life cycle. The life cycle of a firm can generally be categorized into four common stages, which are start-up, growth, maturity and decline. The aim of this study is to investigate the ability of determination of firm life cycle stages using financial ratios. Leverage ratio, profitability and current ratio were chosen as financial ratios in this study. Three main significance hypothesis between current ratio and life cycle stage, leverage ratio and life cycle stage and profitability and life cycle stage were investigated using ordinary least square regression methods based on gathered data of 30 active firms in Tehran stock exchange during 1385 to 1390. The results showed that the first and second hypothesis can be accepted and the last one (significance relation between profitability and life cycle stage) was rejected. Briefly, it was concluded that there is a inverse relation between current ratio and life cycle stage and a direct relation between leverage ratio and life cycle stage. It means that the firms have higher current ratio and lower leverage ratio at the beginning of the life cycle and have lower current ratio and higher leverage ratio at the decline stage