بررسي ميزان تحقق‌پذيري شاخص‌‌‌‌هاي مديريت بحران در طرح تفصيلي مورد مطالعه: منطقه‌ي 20 شهرداري تهران

(Evaluation of implementation disaster management indicators in the detailed plan (Case study: 20th municipal district of Tehran

از جمله عواملي كه امنيت و كيفيت حيات شهرها را به ‌شدت تحت تأثير قرار مي‌‌‌دهد مسئله‌ي توجه به مديريت بحران و راهكارهاي مواجه با آن است. اهميت اين عامل در طرح‌‌‌هاي توسعه شهري، از جمله طرح تفصيلي، منجر به ارتقاي كيفيت تأثيرگذاري مي‌شود و تحقق آن‌ها را به همراه مي‌آورد و در نتيجه مي‌‌‌تواند به توسعه‌ي پايدار شهري كمك كند. اين پژوهش با هدف تجزيه ‌‌‌و تحليل شاخص‌‌‌هاي مديريت بحران در طرح تفصيلي منطقه‌ي 20 شهرداري تهران در زمينه‌ي توجه به ميزان تأثيرگذاري طرح تفصيلي از ديدگاه نخبگان مديريت بحران شهري تدوين شده است. روش پژوهش توصيفي-تحليلي و از نظر هدف كاربردي است. جامعه‌ي آماري پژوهش شامل 217 نفر از كارشناسان خبره‌ي برنامه‌‌‌ريز شهري و متصديان تهيه‌ي طرح تفصيلي شهر تهران بوده است. يافته‌‌‌‌هاي پژوهش نشان مي‌‌‌دهد كه منطقه‌ي 20 از هشت مخاطره‌ي طبيعي و 16 كانون خطرساز انساني تهديد مي‌‌‌شود كه، از ميان آن‌ها، وجود بافت فرسوده و متراكم، انتقال شبكه‌‌‌هاي نيروي فشارقوي و شبكه‌‌‌هاي فاضلاب بيشترين تأثير را در تهديد‌هاي منطقه به دنبال دارند. نتايج نهايي حاكي از آن است كه از نظر آزمودني‌‌‌ها به شاخص‌‌‌هاي مديريت بحران در طرح تفصيلي با مقياس رتبه‌‌‌اي خيلي كم و كم توجه مي‌‌‌شود و اين ميزان توجه معنادار است. بنابراين، منطقه‌ي 20 شهرداري تهران به لحاظ شاخص‌‌‌هاي مديريت بحران شهري به شدت تحت تأثير قرار گرفته و طرح تفصيلي و هدايت توسعه‌ي شهر كمتر به آن مي‌‌‌‌پردازد.

Nowadays, the adaptation of urban crisis management with urban development plans is considered as an efficient way of cutting back on damages and it is essential to predict economic and physical susceptibility of families and communities. Therefore, considering the urban crisis index can play a significant role in urban planning. Tehran city thanks to geographic location, climate conditions and geological conditions is among risky cities so that the presence of seismic faults has made this city potentially seismic and in need of comprehensive crisis management; it needs to be confirmed that despite the earthquake potential in the region and the quality of the buildings especially in old and organic texture and other parameters such as access network and buildings and skeletal disorder the occurrence of a large scale earthquake and other natural disasters would be very catastrophic. For this purpose and given the high susceptibility of the region such as the impression by the North and South Rey fault, hazardous industries and fundamental establishments on the one hand and the presence of worn-out texture on the other hand were the reasons behind choosing this region to do the research. This research is descriptive-analytic in terms of data collection and practical concerning the function. The location of study is 20th municipal district of Tehran. The area is about 23 square kilometer and by including the range about 200 square kilometers. The research population consists of 500 experts and administrators engaged in preparation and practice of detailed municipal plan of Tehran city and crisis management organization of Tehran city. The research mass was selected at 217 persons by the use of Cochran’s formula. The sampling method was random classification method. Data collection instrument was the use of author-prepared questionnaire which consisted of four parts. Measurement instrument validity by facial method and its reliability was examined using Chronbach Alpha. Therefore, after providing the required acceptable reliability among 20 persons of the subjects the personal attendance method of distribution was applied. The research findings show that among research variables, locating crisis management uses within detailed plans received more attention (Mean:82/36) and the knowledge of crisis management within detailed plan management process received less attention (Mean: 24/08). Also the study of distribution indices using standard error deviation and variance reveals that the type of responses to the variable of attention to risky use policies (standard deviation: 4/08) has low distribution and attention to crisis management uses (8/49) has high distribution. For ranking variable conditions Freedman test was implemented. The results obtained from this test showed that the variable of attention to crisis management uses with the mean of 3/81 ranked first and attention to crisis management knowledge within detailed management process with the rank mean of 1/00 stands fourth on the list. The obtained results from the Pearson test also show that among all variables there is a significant relation with a confidence level of 99% and the correlation among them was positive. Also the highest correlation coefficient was attention to the crisis management uses and attention to crisis management knowledge at the rate of 0/898 and the least correlation is about the relation between the variable of attention to knowledge of crisis management and the reflection of crisis management indexes on detailed project plans at the rate of 0/423. Considering the obtained results can conclude that crisis management indexes through the process of preparation, approval and the administration of detailed projects of Tehran city and 20th municipal district have not been attended sufficiently. For instance, skeletal features determination and operational properties at each urban scale were given the rate of susceptibility and the natural place limitations to enhance escape possibilities and people refuge (apposite building type, low building density, use of paths as the getaway and refuge spaces etc.) have not been estimated and their impacts have not been included in development plans. Also neighborhood was expected to be observed in urban lands use determination and avoid incongruous uses next to each other and provide quick exit but such cases have not been attended in detailed Tehran city project and 20th municipal district or that the intended issues have been briefly listed and practically had no use in administration stage. In fact, the bad condition of the skeletal elements location and inapposite uses of the urban lands, deficient urban network, compact urban texture high urban density, improper location of fundamental establishments and shortage and improper distribution of urban open spaces etc. which have critical role in boosting up the rate of inflicted damages to Tehran city against crisis on the basis of the experts’ vantage point has received insufficient attention and while discussing the issue there is no coordination among related organizations concerning a serious attention to such indexes.