نقش تنوع معيشتي در تاب آوري خانوارهاي روستايي پيرامون درياچه اروميه در برابر خشكسالي

the Role of Livelihood Diversity on the Resilience of rural households living around the Lake Urmia against drought

با بحراني شدن هرچه بيشتر وضعيت خشكسالي درياچه اروميه و آسيب پذيري روزافزون سكونتگاه هاي روستايي در برابر اين بلاي طبيعي، اهميت رويكرد مقابله با اين تهديد را بيش ازپيش آشكار ساخته است. پژوهش حاضر با هدف بررسي تنوع معيشتي به عنوان يكي از رويكردهاي مناسب براي كنار آمدن با شرايط خشكسالي درياچه اروميه مي پردازد. روش تحقيق در اين پژوهش به صورت كمي پيمايش بوده است، بنابراين از روش هاي توصيفي، تحليلي و روابط همبستگي استفاده شده است. براي اين منظور 43 روستا از مناطق مختلف شش شهرستان واقع در كرانه شرقي درياچه اروميه با درجات مختلفي از در معرض خشكسالي بودن و همچنين در سطوح مختلف از نظر برخورداري از امكانات توسعه با روش تصادفي ساده انتخاب گرديده و بر اساس فرمول كوكران 380 نفر از سرپرستان خانوارها به عنوان حجم نمونه انتخاب گرديد. روايي پرسشنامه توسط پانل متخصصان مورد تاييد و سطح پايايي پرسشنامه با استفاده از فرمول آلفاي كرونباخ 0/893 به دست آمده است. نتايج به دست آمده نشان مي دهند كه اتخاذ رويكرد معيشتي منجر به تاب آوري بيشتر خانوارها در شرايط خشكسالي درياچه اروميه شده است. در روستاهايي كه در معرض خشكسالي شديدتري قرار داشتند، اين تنوع معيشتي بيشتر بوده است. در نهايت با توجه به نتايج پژوهش، پيشنهادات كاربردي درزمينه راهكاري عملي تنوع معيشتي و تاب آوري روستايي ارائه شده است.

Nowadays، the severity of the drought hazard has reached a point that has affected all the rural and urban areas surrounding it. Increasing the resilience of villages via livelihood solutions، is one of the best strategies for reducing the vulnerability of villages against natural hazards such as drought. The eastern side of the Lake Urmia consists of the six cities of Osku، Azarshahr، Bonab، Shabestar، Ajabshir and Malekan. Totally، there are 199 villages in this region، which are affected by the drought of the Lake، directly and indirectly and according to the statistics، the quantitative and qualitative reduction in agricultural and livestock productions and soil quality، the incidence of respiratory diseases and … have risen sharply compared to the past and a number of villages have been evacuated. Also because of the lack of a coherent strategy، which should be taken by the planners and authorities، the important measures to revitalize the Lake has not been taken yet and the dimensions of the threat are increasing day by day. Current study investigate the factors affecting the resilience of rural settlements of the eastern side of the Lake Urmia against Drought. This is an applied and analytic-explanatory research. The data is collected by questionnaire from the villagers living in rural areas of the six cities، which are the statistical population of the research and the total number of the villages estimated 199 with 232295 persons. The standardized Perception Index (SPI) is used to estimate the varying degrees of the villages in the eastern side of the Lake Urmia. In the next step، the possession index for each of the villages was calculated and the studied villages were classified based on it. On this basis and by considering the four status of drought and the three levels of possession، after sorting the villages on the basis of these two indexes، 43 villages were chosen from different regions of the eastern side of the Lake as the first level of analysis، using systematic random selection. Also، to classify the villages in the regard of possessing of the development facilities، the composite indicators called Morris pattern and 47 existing items are used، which are calculated in 9 different indexes. Finally، the obtained information were analyzed using SPSS and GIS software. Regarding to the research findings at the eastern side of the Lake and on the basis of Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI)، about 78% of this area has been experiencing drought. Also، the status of the overall indicators of household's livelihood capital on the basis of the Normal Scale from 0 to 10 is 3.34، which shows the unfavorable status of this index. The results of the study in the field of the level of civil and institutional development showed that on the basis of the Normal scale from 0 to 10، civil development is 4.86 and institutional development is 3.69. Lastly، the research findings for the three levels of the sustainable development of the livelihood shows that the livelihood diversification is 3.61، in depth agriculture 3.24 and migration strategy is 3.02. The analysis of the results of the sustainable livelihood shows that the decrease of drought of the villages increases the diversity of the livelihood of the villagers. According to the results obtained، the mean of the resilience index of the investigated households on the basis of 0 to 10 equals to 4.86، which is close to the average level. The classified distribution of the resilience level and the focus of the more than of 56% of the households with average level of resilience confirms this situation. 30.26% of the households has low resilience and 15.64% has high resilience in the face of existing conditions. Upon this basis، the highest amount of the resilience equals to 5.38، which exists in the villages with severe drought conditions and by decrease of the drought، the resilience of household’s decreases. Finally it can be said that the villages with a long history of vulnerability from drought and also having more intense droughts، has a higher resilience level in dealing with the situation. According to the results، the highest amount of vulnerability exists in the villages with low experience in dealing with the long-term conditions of drought، which their economic and social structures are not prepared to deal with the conditions. While the average amount of the livelihood capitals and the resilience of the studied statistical population do not show an appropriate conditions، but totally، the results and relationships of the studied variables conforms the role of possessing all dimensions of livelihood capital on taking appropriate approach to dealing with the conditions of drought in the Lake Urmia. In the field of taking the approaches of diversifying the livelihood resources of the villagers، there are several scientific and examined solutions، such as considering the education and awareness as a definite reality، also the knowledge and skills of the villagers in the fields of modifying the crop patterns، water saving strategies، the use of efficient products and making use of the other high-income jobs must be increased. In the field of educational solutions، besides providing modern knowledge and international successful experiences، it must be possible to make use of the indigenous knowledge and experiences of the villagers.