واكاوي و رتبه بندي استراتژي هاي سازگاري نسبت به تغييرات اقليمي از ديدگاه مردم محلي مورد مطالعه: دشت سيستان

Analysis and ranking of adaptation strategies to climate change from the perspective of local people in Sistan plain

تلاش براي شناسايي نگرش هاي مردم و مدل هاي ذهني آنها نسبت به تغييرات اقليمي مي تواند كاربست هاي لازم جهت مديريت پساتغيير را فراهم نمايد. اشاعه فرهنگ مدل سازي و مهندسي ذهن از رويكردهايي است كه دانشمندان جهت مديريت مخاطرات اقليمي و پيامدهاي تغيير اقليم اتخاذ كرده اند. هدف از اين پژوهش ارائه مدل و شناخت نگرش مردم براي سازگاري اين مناطق با تغييرات اقليمي مي باشد. به منظور انجام اين مطالعه به تدوين چارچوب نظري براي ارائه مدل سازگاري با تغييرات اقليمي در هيرمند پرداخته و سپس با روش ميداني به سنجش ديدگاههاي مردم درباره تغيير اقليم اقدام شد. ويژگي هاي سازگارانه مردم با تغييرات جديد و رويكرد مردم با چالش هاي پيش رو بررسي شد. اين داده ها محور بر سطح دانش (آگاهي) از آب و هوا و تغييرات آن و استراتژي هاي كاهش و سازگاري آماده شد. داده هاي گرداوري شده با استفاده از تكنيك هاي آماري پردازش گرديد و براي رتبه بندي و ارزيابي استراتژي هاي سازگاري مدلسازي گرديد و شاخص ASI ايجاد شد. اين نتايج براي بينش سياست گذاران و ارائه دهندگان خدمات جهت توسعه محلي مهم است و مي توان به اقدامات هدفمند مورد استفاده قرار گرفته و ترويج و تصويب مكانيسم هاي مقابله با پتانسيل براي ايجاد تاب آوري و سازگاري با تغيير آب و هوا و در نتيجه اثرات زيست محيطي انها آماده كند. نتايج نشان داد كه بيشتر مردم در اين منطقه به دنبال انتخاب رفتار سازشي با تغييرات اقليمي مي باشند. در مجموع 15 استراتژي در منطقه مطرح مي باشد. بر اساس رتبه بندي استراتژي ها با شاخص ASI تغيير الگوي كشت، انتخاب گونه هاي مقاوم، كاهش مقدار زمين و تنوع كشت مهمترين الگوي هاي سازگاري با تغييرات محيطي مي باشد.

Climate change is one of the crucial factors، which threaten many sector such as agriculture، water resource for decades، and the sector is more sensitive to climatic conditions. Communities are the most vulnerable to the adverse impacts of climate change and variability because of their low adaptive capacity. One of the challenges of climate change and human spatial dimensions of climate change in international borders where climate change، and creates special challenges. Populated places in the East where rapid urbanization، industrialization and agricultural intensification result in vulnerability to climate change، water shortages as the main concern arises. Adaptation to climate change is the adjustment of a natural or human system to moderate the impacts of climate change، to take advantage of new opportunities or to cope with the consequences. Trying to identify the attitudes of people and their mental models of climate change can provide application to manage the post-change. Culture and engineering modeling approaches minds of scientists for climate risk management and climate change consequences have adopted. The review focused on farmers’ perceptions on changes in temperature، precipitation (rainfall)، adaptation measures taken by farmers، barriers inhibiting these adaptation measures and the socioeconomic determinants of adaptations to climate change in Sistan plain. The aim of this study is to provide mental system model، and understanding of climate change is to adapt these areas. To carry out this study to develop a theoretical framework for the model to adapt to climate change was discussed in Helmand. The field study was to assess the views of people on climate change action. The review found out that most farmers in this region are aware that the continent is getting warmer، and precipitation or rainfall patterns have changed. People with new changes and features adaptive approach to the challenges ahead were investigated. This data is based on knowledge (awareness) of water and climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies and be ready. So how compliance action is preventive in nature and to reduce the repercussions of climate change and the potential benefits of a region in the face of these side effects are formed. Most respondents aged over twenty years are at least a decade to climate change are felt to be most frequent subjects 30 to 40 years old. The data collected were processed using statistical techniques and modeling for ranking and evaluation of adaptation strategies were created and ASI index. The results for the insights، policy makers and service providers for local development is important، and can be targeted measures used and the promotion and adoption of coping mechanisms with the potential to build resilience and adapt to climate change and the resulting effects environmental prepare. The results showed that most people in the region following the election of climate change is adaptive behavior. In total، there are 15 strategies in the region. The ASI index rating of strategies to change the pattern of cultivation، selection of resistant strains، reducing the amount of land-cultivated variety is the pattern of adaptation to environmental changes. Ensuring awareness of and adaptation to climate variability call was conducted with the cooperation of the people. Therefore، variability of climate and natural features of the area was measured by various options. The results show that already sampled respondents in the community are aware of climate change. 60% of respondents strongly observed signs of climate change and the dry season and low rainfall and warmer temperatures to believe. The main adjustment options adopted by farmers to temperature in the region include change of product types and number of ships that 61.6 percent of the farmers that their efforts. Another priority is that 39 percent of them tend to change sowing dates and planting varieties resistant to drought. The main recommendations for adapting to new circumstances in this region to stimulate the economy and livelihood of local people can be to diversify crop production (food for example، and cash crops، annual and permanent crops greenhouse) and the use of foreign income from farm sources (ecotourism، rural tourism) can be cited.