تحليل فضايي سطح تاب آوري سكونتگاه هاي روستايي در برابر مخاطرات محيطي (مورد مطالعه: بخش مركزي شهرستان فاروج)

(Spatial Analysis of Villagers’ Resilience Against Environmental Hazards (A Case Study of Central District of Faruj County

مفهوم تاب آوري ارمغان تحول مديريت مخاطرات دهه ي حاضر است. امروزه ديدگاه ها و نظريه هاي مديريت سوانح و توسعه ي پايدار به دنبال ايجاد جوامع تاب آور در برابر مخاطرات طبيعي هستند. سوانح طبيعي مثل زلزله، خشك سالي، سيل و... به عنوان پديده هاي اجتناب ناپذيري به حساب مي آيند كه هميشه خطري جدي براي توسعه به خصوص توسعه روستايي به شمار مي روند. جهت كاهش آسيب هاي ناشي از سوانح طبيعي بايد ظرفيت و توان روستاها را براي مقابله با اين حوادث بالا برد. هدف اين پژوهش تحليل فضايي عوامل موثر بر ارتقاي تاب آوري محيطي روستاييان در هنگام مواجهه با مخاطرات طبيعي در روستاهاي بخش مركزي شهرستان فاروج مي باشد. در اين راستا از روش تحقيق پيمايشي با به كارگيري پرسشنامه استفاده شده است. روايي پرسشنامه با استفاده از نظرات متخصصان و پايايي آن با استفاده از محاسبه آلفاء كرونباخ براي ابعاد مختلف تامين شد. جامعه آماري، 4591 خانوار از روستاهاي مناسب براي اسكان موقت بوده است كه بر پايه فرمول كوكران، شمار نمونه ها 252 نمونه به دست آمد، اين افراد با روش نمونه گيري تصادفي انتخاب شدند. يافته هاي تحقيق نشان داد كه عوامل بُعد زيرساختي با ميانگين 2.92 بيشترين و عوامل بُعد اقتصادي با ميانگين 2.58 كمترين تاثير را در تاب آوري روستاها داشته است. بر اساس آزمون T ميانگين واقعي نظر كل پاسخگويان از 3 كوچك تر و در حد متوسط به پايين است. همچنين به منظور ارزيابي ميزان اثرگذاري هر يك از شاخص هاي تحقيق بر ميزان تاب آوري در روستاهاي موردمطالعه، از آزمون آماري تحليل عاملي تاييدي استفاده شد كه مشخص گرديد از بين شاخص هاي موردمطالعه «ميزان رضايت روستائيان از عملكرد شورا و دهياري»، «نقش نهادها در آموزش مردم در مورد حوادث مختلف» و «استفاده از مصالح جديد و بادوام براي پيشگيري از اثرات مخرب حوادث» بيشترين اثر را در تاب آوري روستاهاي موردمطالعه دارند. همچنين براي تعيين بهترين روستا ازنظر تاب آوري براي استقرار پايگاه اسكان موقت در مديريت بحران از سه تكنيك ارزيابي مجموع نسبت ها، ويكور و تحليل خاكستري استفاده شد و بر اساس روش ميانگين رتبه ها، اولويت بندي روستاهاي موردمطالعه انجام شد، كه روستاهاي مفرنقاه، استاد و پيرعلي با توجه به شاخص هاي تاب آوري موردبررسي در مناطق روستايي بالاترين رتبه را دارا بودند و روستاي ريزه و رشوانلو پايين ترين رتبه را داشته است.

Statement of the problem: The concept of resilience is the outcome of changes in risk managing in current decade. Today، the views and theories of disaster management and sustainable development seek to create societies resilient against natural disasters. Natural disasters such as earthquakes، droughts، floods، etc. are inevitable phenomenon which always pose a serious threat to development، especially in rural areas. This reflects the need to pay more attention to resilience in local level (rural areas). Resilience is the ability of a social or ecological system to absorb and deal with disorder or disturbance، so that the basic functional structure، can maintain the capacity of reorganization and adapting to changes and tensions. Carpenter defines resilience as the capacity of an environmental and social system to absorb a disruption، reorganize and thereby maintain essential functions. Thus، in order to reduce damage caused by natural disasters، the capacity of rural areas to deal with these events should be increased. Increased level of resilience against natural hazards is possible through accurately identifying the factors affecting resilience. Therefore، the aim of this study is the spatial analysis of factors affecting the promotion of rural environmental resilience in the face of natural hazards in rural areas of Faruj County. In fact، the present study seeks to answer the following questions: what are the factors which may increase the level of resilience in the sample communities exposed to natural hazards، and how resilient are the sample villages of the study? Research Methodology: This study is an applied research conducted in a descriptive-analytical method based on questionnaires. Data were collected through library research and field works which required completing questionnaires and conducting interviews with villagers living in the Central District of Faruj County. Validity of the questionnaires was confirmed based on experts' views and its reliability was calculated using Cronbach alpha for different dimensions. The population consisted of 4591 households from the villages suitable for temporary accommodation. Based on the Cochran formula، 252 were obtained from these samples. They were selected by stratified random sampling. Using statistical analysis methods in SPSS software، we analyzed the data to measure resilience in sample villages of the study area. We also used Excel and GIS in various parts of the study. To determine the best option، we used the VIKOR models، Gray relational analysis and Additive Ratio Assessment (ARAS). Results and discussion: The results showed that infrastructure dimension with a mean of 2.92 and the economic dimension with a mean of 2.58 respectively had the highest and least impact on increased resilience which suggest that these villages compared to sample villages have relatively good infrastructure facilities. However، due to the lack of proper institutional framework and poor performance of crisis management institutions، villagers are less satisfied with these organizations. Accordingly، based on t-test، the actual mean of the total respondents’ views was less than 3 and at the moderate level، and the economic index with the t statistics of -10.38 had the most negative impact on the resilience of the villagers. It should be noted that according to the results of the resilience correlation with the individual characteristics of the respondents، it became clear that the gender and marital status has a direct and weak relationship with each dimension of resilience، which means men and the married people compared to the women and the singles believe their villages are more resilient. Besides، there is a weak and reverse relationship between the education of the individuals and their resilience، meaning that people with lower education compared to educated people، believe their villages are more resilient. There was no relationship between age and the dimensions of resilience. In order to assess the impact of each index of the study on the level of resilience in the villages of the study، the confirmatory factor analysis test was used which revealed that among the indices of the study، "the villagers’ satisfaction with the performance of the Rural Council and administers (Dehyars)"، "the role of institutions in educating people about various incidents" and "the use of new and durable materials to prevent the damaging effects of the incidents" had the greatest effect on the resilience of the samples villages. Eventually، to determine the best village in terms of resilience for establishing a temporary settlement site in crisis management، we use three techniques: additive ratio assessment (ARSA)،- VIKOR and Gray relational analysis. We prioritized the villages based on the mean rank method. -Considering the indices of resilience in the rural areas of the study، the villages of Mefrangah، Ostad and Pirali have the highest ranks، and the villages of Rizeh and Roshavanlou have the lowest ranks.