رتبه بندي تورش هاي رفتاري سرمايه گذاران در مواجهه با اخبار و شايعات مهم سياسي با تاكيد بر دوره مذاكرات هسته اي

Ranking of Behavioral Biases of Investors in the Face of political News and Rumors, emphasis on the era of Nuclear Talks

تبيين تورش هاي رفتاري سرمايه گذاران در مواجهه با رويدادهاي مهم از جمله مسائل روز در ادبيات سرمايه گذاري مي باشد. هرچند مدل هاي كلاسيك سرمايه گذاري كماكان از مقبوليت برخوردارند وليكن توسعه ادبيات مالي رفتاري منجر به بسط تحقيقات در زمينه شناسايي رفتار سرمايه گذاران شده است. اين شناسايي باعث تقويت راهبردهاي سرمايه گذاري و نظارتهاي راهبردي در سطح كلان بازار خواهد شد. در طي ساليان اخير روند مذاكرات هسته اي و مسائل آن از جمله عوامل موثر بر بازار سرمايه و سرمايه گذاران بوده است. در اين پژوهش به بررسي تورش هاي رفتاري سرمايه گذاران در مواجهه با اخبار و شايعات مرتبط با مذاكرات هسته اي بعنوان يكي از عوامل مهم و تاثير گذار بر بازار سرمايه پرداخته شده است. براساس نظر سنجي از سرمايه گذاران و با استفاده از رويكرد تاپسيس ( TOPSIS) كه از فنون تصميم گيري چندمعياره است به رتبه بندي تورش هاي رفتاري سرمايه گذاران پرداخته شد. براساس نتايج بدست آمده سه تورش بهينه بيني، تازه گرايي و پشيمان گريزي مهمترين تورش هاي رفتاري سرمايه گذاران در مواجهه با مسائل مذاكرات هسته اي بوده است

Tversky and Kahneman in the70 s in a series of articles achieved to the development of applications of psychological knowledge in finance and economy and these research gradually became known as behavioral finance in the 90s as a field of financial matters. This school of thought with find inability to existing models, which are based on full rationality and lack of arbitrage turned to psychology and the science of decision making and by using a combination of these science and finance gain a better understanding of investment activity in the financial markets. The development of this approach has led the scientists noticed a behavior in investors that are inconsistent with the classic financial theories. These characteristics known as behavioral biases that explaining the systematic errors in people judgment. In recent years the nuclear talks and the progress or lack of progress always caused reactions by players in capital market of Iran. The discussion has became more serious in the second half of 1392, ie since the beginning of negotiations in New York and all market indicators, including indices, volume and value of transactions was increasingly affected by this event. In this study, it was determined that what is the reaction of active players in the capital market according to the news and rumors about nuclear talks and which of behavioral biases exist in their transactions. Therefore, after making a list of behavioral biases in a questionnaire, the experts commented about those and results and were analyzed and ranked using TOPSIS.