ﺑﺮرﺳﻲ ﭘﺎﻳﺪاري ﺑﻮم ﺷﻨﺎﺧﺘﻲ ﻛﺸﺖ ﭘﻨﺒﻪ و ﺗﺤﻠﻴﻞ ﻋﻮاﻣﻞ ﻣﻮﺛﺮ ﺑﺮ آن در ﺷﻤﺎل اﺳﺘﺎن ﮔﻠﺴﺘﺎن

Study of ecological sustainability and analysis factors affecting of cotton cultivation in the north of Golestan province, Iran

اﻳﻦ ﭘﮋوﻫﺶ ﺑﻪ ﻣﻨﻈﻮر ﺗﺤﻠﻴﻞ ﭘﺎﻳﺪاري ﺑﻮم ﺷﻨﺎﺧﺘﻲ ﻛﺸﺖ ﭘﻨﺒﻪ و ﻋﻮاﻣﻞ ﻣﻮﺛﺮ ﺑﺮ آن در روﺳﺘﺎﻫﺎي ﺷﻬﺮﺳﺘﺎن ﻫﺎي ﻋﻠﻲ آﺑﺎد ﻛﺘﻮل و آق ﻗﻼ از اﺳﺘﺎن ﮔﻠﺴﺘﺎن در ﺳﺎل زراﻋﻲ 94 و 93 اﻧﺠﺎم ﺷﺪ. ﺟﺎﻣﻌﻪ آﻣﺎري، ﻛﺸﺎورزان ﭘﻨﺒﻪ ﻛﺎر اﻳﻦ دو ﺷﻬﺮﺳﺘﺎن ﺑﻮد و 100 ﻛﺸﺎورز ﺑﻪ ﺻﻮرت ﺗﺼﺎدﻓﻲ در ﻃﻲ اﻳﻦ دو ﺳﺎل اﻧﺘﺨﺎب و از ﻃﺮﻳﻖ ﻣﺼﺎﺣﺒﻪ ﭼﻬﺮه ﺑﻪ ﭼﻬﺮه ﺑﺎ زارﻋﻴﻦ ﭘﻨﺒﻪ ﻛﺎر اﻃﻼﻋﺎت ﻣﺮﺑﻮط ﺑﻪ وﻳﮋﮔﻲ ﻫﺎي ﻓﺮدي و ﺣﺮﻓﻪ اي و ﺑﻮم ﺷﻨﺎﺧﺘﻲ ﻣﺰارع ﺟﻤﻊ آوري ﺷﺪ. ﻧﺘﺎﻳﺞ ﻧﺸﺎن داد ﻛﻪ 10 درﺻﺪ ﻣﺰارع از ﻧﻈﺮ وﺿﻌﻴﺖ ﭘﺎﻳﺪاري در ﮔﺮوه ﻧﺎﭘﺎﻳﺪار و 41 درﺻﺪ ﻧﻴﺰ در ﮔﺮوه ﻧﺴﺒﺘﺎ ﻧﺎﭘﺎﻳﺪار ﻗﺮار داﺷﺘﻨﺪ اﻳﻦ در ﺣﺎﻟﻲ اﺳﺖ ﻛﻪ ﺗﻨﻬﺎ 3 درﺻﺪ از ﻣﺰارع ﻣﻮرد ﻣﻄﺎﻟﻌﻪ وﺿﻌﻴﺖ ﭘﺎﻳﺪار و 46 درﺻﺪ ﻧﻴﺰ ﻧﺴﺒﺘﺎ ﭘﺎﻳﺪار ﺑﻮدﻧﺪ، ﺑﻨﺎﺑﺮاﻳﻦ در ﻣﺠﻤﻮع ﺑﺮاﺳﺎس ﻧﺘﺎﻳﺞ ﺑﻪ دﺳﺖ آﻣﺪه، وﺿﻌﻴﺖ ﭘﺎﻳﺪاري ﻣﺰارع ﭘﻨﺒﻪ ﻣﻮرد ﺑﺮرﺳﻲ، ﻣﺘﻮﺳﻂ ﺑﻪ ﭘﺎﻳﻴﻦ ﺑﺮآورد ﮔﺮدﻳﺪ. ﺑﻪ ﻣﻨﻈﻮر ﺗﺤﻠﻴﻞ ﺑﻴﺸﺘﺮ، از ﺗﺤﻠﻴﻞ ﻋﺎﻣﻠﻲ و رﮔﺮﺳﻴﻮن ﮔﺎم ﺑﻪ ﮔﺎم اﺳﺘﻔﺎده ﺷﺪ. ﻧﺘﺎﻳﺞ ﺗﺤﻠﻴﻞ ﻋﺎﻣﻠﻲ ﻧﺸﺎن داد ﻛﻪ 14 ﻣﺘﻐﻴﺮ ﻣﻮرد ﺑﺮرﺳﻲ در 4 ﻋﺎﻣﻞ، ﻗﺮار ﮔﺮﻓﺘﻪ و در ﻛﻞ 58 درﺻﺪ از وارﻳﺎﻧﺲ ﻛﻞ را ﺗﺒﻴﻴﻦ ﻛﺮده اﻧﺪ. ﻧﺘﺎﻳﺞ رﮔﺮﺳﻴﻮن ﮔﺎم ﺑﻪ ﮔﺎم ﻧﺸﺎن داد ﻛﻪ ﻣﺘﻐﻴﺮ ﺳﺎﺑﻘﻪ ﻛﺸﺖ از ﺑﻘﻴﻪ ﻣﺘﻐﻴﺮﻫﺎ ﺑﺮ ﭘﺎﻳﺪاري ﻛﺸﺖ ﺗﺄﺛﻴﺮﮔﺬارﺗﺮ اﺳﺖ. ﺑﻌﺪ از آن ﻣﺘﻐﻴﺮﻫﺎي ﻣﻴﺰان ﻛﻮد آﻟﻲ ﻣﺼﺮﻓﻲ، ﺗﻌﺪاد وﺟﻴﻦ و ﻋﻤﻠﻜﺮد ﺑﻴﺸﺘﺮﻳﻦ ﺳﻬﻢ را دارﻧﺪ. ﻣﺘﻐﻴﺮﻫﺎي ﺗﻌﺪاد آﺑﻴﺎري، ﻣﻘﺪار ﺳﻢ ﻣﺼﺮﻓﻲ، ﺳﻄﺢ ﺳﻮاد و ﻣﺪﻳﺮﻳﺖ ﻧﺎدرﺳﺖ ﺑﻘﺎﻳﺎ ﻧﻴﺰ ﺗﺎﺛﻴﺮ ﻣﻨﻔﻲ ﺑﺮ ﭘﺎﻳﺪاري اﻳﻦ ﻣﺤﺼﻮل داﺷﺖ.

In this paper ecological sustainability of cotton cultivation and factors affecting them during 2014 and 2015 were studied in the villages of Aq-Qala and Ali Abad Katul cities, Golestan province. The statistical community was cotton farmers of the two Regions. One hundred farmers were selected randomly and information about personal and professional characteristics as well as ecological properties of farms were collected through face to face interviews. The results showed that 10 and 41 percent of farms were described as unsustainable and relatively unsustainable, respectively, while only 3 percent of the farms studied were sustainable and 46% were classified as relatively sustainable. Therefore, based on the results, sustainability of the cotton fields investigated in this study was estimated as lower than average. In order to more analyze, factor analysis and stepwise regression were used. The results showed that 14 variables were loaded onto 4 factors and described 58% of total variance. Results of regression analysis showed that the "history of agriculture" affects in the ecological sustainability more than other variables, followed by "organic fertilizer", "weeding frequency" and "yield". The variables "number of irrigation", "amount of pesticide", "literacy level" and "mismanagement of residue" had a negative effect on the stability of the cotton production.